The total amount of US debt has exceeded $34 trillion, and under the current trend, it is difficult to 'pay off'. The key question is not 'can it be paid back', but:

This is a very profound issue. The total amount of US debt has exceeded $34 trillion, and under the current trend, it is difficult to 'pay off'. The key question is not 'can it be paid back', but:

Whether the US can maintain its 'refinancing ability' and 'market confidence' for government bonds — once these two break, it marks the end of the debt bubble.

Let's delve into the possible endings of the US debt 'default', and their potential impact on the global and Bitcoin markets.

⸻

🔚 1. The 'final outcome' of US debt may be one of the following four:

⸻

1. Debt 'monetization' continues (most likely)

This means the Federal Reserve continuously buys government bonds, and the government continues to issue new debt to 'borrow new to repay old', using printed money to repay debt.

• ✅ Benefits: will not default in the short term, maintaining market operation.

• ❗ Risks: inflation, dollar credit crisis, intensified asset bubbles.

• 📌 Similar patterns: Argentina, Turkey, US stagflation in the 1970s.

🔮 Outcome prediction:

• The dollar depreciates relatively;

• Gold and Bitcoin benefit in the long term;

• US stocks may do well in the short term, but long-term bubble accumulation.

⸻

2. Implicit default: 'diluting' debt through inflation

It's not that you can't pay back, but when you do, your money has become 'worthless' (devalued).

For example: borrow 100,000, and after 10 years pay you back 100,000, but 100,000 can no longer buy what it originally could.

• ✅ The government will not 'openly default', but will reduce the debt/GDP ratio through inflation.

• ❗ This is actually an 'implicit tax' on all holders of dollar assets.

• 📌 Similar: After World War II, the US resolved post-war debt through inflation.

🔮 Outcome prediction:

• Middle-class savings shrink, wealthy individuals buy physical assets (gold, real estate);

• Assets like Bitcoin that are 'anti-inflation' become the focus of safe-haven investments.

⸻

3. Substantive default (extreme scenario)

The US Congress failed to pass the debt ceiling, causing the federal government to be unable to pay maturing bonds or interest.

• ⚠️ Very dangerous, has never truly happened in history.

• Will trigger:

• Credit rating downgraded again;

• US bond yields soar, global financial turmoil;

• A significant decline in confidence in the US system.

🔮 Outcome prediction:

• Gold and Bitcoin skyrocketing;

• The US stock and bond markets experience severe fluctuations;

• Severe blow to US international influence, financial hegemony shaken.

⸻

4. Structural fiscal reform + spending cuts (the hardest)

Control the scale of debt gradually by cutting military spending, social security expenditures, and increasing taxes.

• ⚠️ Extremely difficult to implement in reality, US politics is extremely divided.

• The public does not accept cuts to social security, businesses are unwilling to raise taxes, and reforms are hindered.

• Currently, both parties tend to 'drag it out'.

🔮 Outcome prediction:

• Only after a significant crisis can real structural adjustments be pushed forward;

• Similar to Roosevelt's New Deal in the 1930s or Japan's 'break and rebuild' after World War II.

⸻

🪙 What roles do Bitcoin and gold play in these outcomes?

Outcome method Bitcoin trend Gold trend US Dollar trend

1. Continued monetization Increase, long-term favorable Increase Slow devaluation

2. High inflation resolution Significant increase Significant increase Medium to long-term decline

3. True default Short-term severe fluctuations → skyrocketing Skyrocketing Significant decline

4. Fiscal reconstruction Initial fluctuations, later stabilization Fluctuations → stabilization Stabilization or rebound

⸻

🧠 Core logic summary:

• US debt is not 'must pay back' in the traditional sense, but is a 'monetary infrastructure' that relies on the continuous operation of the credit cycle.

• Once international trust is lost, or inflation spirals out of control, the system will reset through some form of 'soft default' (similar to abandoning the gold standard in 1971).

• The real risk is not 'unable to repay at maturity', but rather the global 'psychological turning point' regarding the dollar and US debt credit system.

⸻