Here, I will first throw out a core judgment:
The overall market base is expected to welcome a brief small-scale explosive market in mid to late June.
However, from the overall trend of July and August, bearish sentiment in the market will still dominate.
However, extending the timeline to the end of the year, the market will welcome a favorable situation.
This judgment is mainly based on the following points:
Firstly, it is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Although many in the market are skeptical about this, I believe the Federal Reserve will definitely lower interest rates. Analyzing from a political perspective, Trump's influence is like a powerful undercurrent, with his sphere of influence continuously expanding and difficult to retract. If the Federal Reserve does not take proactive measures like cutting interest rates to regulate, the forces related to Trump are likely to face a risk of collapse in the future. Moreover, the intensity of the reforms promoted by Trump is unprecedented, which undoubtedly poses a serious threat to the cake of vested interests. In this situation, if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates this time, its inaction will be exposed, and the subsequent chain reaction could be unimaginable.
Secondly, the introduction of the stablecoin bill is undoubtedly a key move in the game. The official launch of this bill is like a stabilizing needle, expected to inject new stability into the market, opening up new development opportunities, and thus having a profound and lasting impact on the future direction of the market. In the long run, it is of great significance for the Web3 field, not only conducive to its long-term and stable development but also likely to optimize the stability form of Web3 to a level similar to that of the stock market, constructing a more mature and standardized development framework.
Thirdly, the current money circulation volume has shown a significant growth trend compared to the period during the implementation of the tariff policy. However, investors' mentality remains highly tense and cautious, like a startled bird. After all, the tariff war is currently only temporarily suspended, not completely ended, and there are still many uncertain factors in the future. At the same time, the flames of the Russia-Ukraine war are still burning, and various conflicts around the world continue to emerge. Many regions are filled with a tense atmosphere of war being imminent. In such a complex and changing environment, the current market is undoubtedly in an unhealthy state of imbalance.
Here, I suggest that everyone pay more attention to the recent trends in gold. The volatility of gold prices shows a clear inverse relationship with the level of market crisis. In-depth research on gold trends may provide us with valuable insights into market crises and help us grasp market movements.
Regarding the first contract, from the daily level technical analysis, its current height has shown signs that it is difficult to maintain. The peak of the bullish trend in June is expected to be around $107,500. For experienced operators, this is an ideal point to set up short positions. Looking ahead, market trends indicate that by mid-July, the first contract price may fall back to the $100,000 range.
Recently, the performance of the second contract on the market has been quite 'confusing.' If investors keep an eye on the market dynamics, it is not difficult to find that the second contract seems to be 'forcefully' maintaining an upward trend. Its price trend has diverged to some extent from the first contract, not following the rhythm of the first contract, but instead carving out a seemingly 'independent' upward path, which at one point led people to believe it would return to its previous price ratio with the first contract. However, from the analysis of the key indicator of capital outflow, the current situation of the second contract seems more like a 'trap' to entice uninformed investors to enter the market. It is expected that in late June, the second contract will peak at $2,750, and operators can set up short positions around $2,720, with the second contract price likely falling back to the $2,480 range by mid-July.
(This is my personal opinion, please do not take it seriously)
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