The market is indeed too dull, and Bitcoin's movement currently appears somewhat dangerous, nearing the intersection of the 7-day and 30-day moving averages. If it breaks below, support may look towards $93,000, with the overall trend resembling that of 2021 quite a bit.
Relatively speaking, the performance of $ETH remains relatively stable. Since the ETF was approved last year, the correlation between $BTC and $ETH has significantly weakened, and most altcoins are based on the EVM ecosystem, making $ETH a more representative reference.
Apart from a few projects like LPT and #COOKIE performing decently, most altcoins are stagnant. The biggest 'fun' each day seems to be watching James getting besieged.
In a trillion-dollar market, there seems to be no room for someone firmly bullish on BTC. The final outcome may inevitably lead to a 'chilly' fate—this is also the reason why Xiao Miao has always advised everyone to stay away from contracts. No matter how powerful you are, it’s just a slower path to zero. Unless you're willing to pay enough tuition or are truly one in a million.
Instead of getting caught up in the chaos, it’s better to hold onto the core projects in AI, MEME, and the ETH ecosystem, learning from Li Xiaolai to 'make friends with time,' waiting for trends, interest rate cuts, and the next moves of the 'whales.'
The 'death month' of Bitcoin is here again! Has Wall Street really encountered a major event this time?
The tariff policy triggered by Trump's election victory at the end of last year went largely unnoticed in the cryptocurrency market, resulting in heavy losses. Now a bigger negative news has arrived—the M debt crisis.
Once the bond market crashes, neither U.S. stocks nor the cryptocurrency market will be spared. Trump's tax cuts were intended to stimulate the economy, but the reality may mirror the initial tariff policy—counterproductive, not only dragging down the economy but also undermining the Fed's anti-inflation efforts.
Therefore, this time it is crucial to remain highly vigilant. Don't forget that last year, no one took tariffs seriously, and it led to significant problems. Now, with the tax cut crisis approaching, the second half of the year may unleash an even fiercer storm.
Many are curious: has the billionaire investor Spoofy already entered the market?
From on-chain data, Spoofy has not bought back after liquidating his positions, indicating he believes the current cryptocurrency prices are still too high and not at an ideal entry point.
According to past patterns, Spoofy is a calm medium to long-term trader who waits at least 1-2 months after exiting before buying back in. Therefore, I judge that he will most likely wait until Bitcoin drops to the $80,000-$90,000 range before re-entering.
Additionally, from a seasonal perspective, June to September is the traditional off-season for the cryptocurrency market and U.S. stocks, where market performance is often weak, and adjustments are common even in bull markets. Meanwhile, October to December tends to be influenced by the 'Halloween effect,' with the market generally strengthening, supported by scientific research.
According to past patterns, Spoofy is a calm medium to long-term trader who waits at least 1-2 months after exiting before buying back in. Therefore, I judge that he will most likely wait until Bitcoin drops to the $80,000-$90,000 range before re-entering.
Additionally, from a seasonal perspective, June to September is the traditional off-season for the cryptocurrency market and U.S. stocks, where market performance is often weak, and adjustments are common even in bull markets. Meanwhile, October to December tends to be influenced by the 'Halloween effect,' with the market generally strengthening, supported by scientific research.
We indicated a correction would begin in June when Bitcoin was at $110,000, combining multiple signals: the positive news from the conference had run its course, Spoofy liquidated his positions, the market was extremely greedy, and ETH showed false breakouts, all clear signals to escape.
In the short term, Bitcoin at $103,000 is a trading zone with the potential for a slight rebound, presenting opportunities for scalping or going long, but the overall trend still points downward.
This week's market focus: dual alarms on employment data and inflation!
This Friday at 8:30 PM, the U.S. unemployment rate and employment data will become the market's core focus, and the situation is rather strange. Although the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable, non-farm employment expectations have been significantly downgraded—from 177,000 to 130,000, a nearly 30% drop, which is clearly not a good sign.
Looking back at last week, the number of unemployment claims rose more than expected, indicating a weak job market, further confirming the negative effects of Trump's tariff policy beginning to show: manufacturing has not returned, but instead has led to job losses and rising unemployment.
Even more concerning is next week's CPI inflation data. Wall Street 'mouthpiece' Nick reveals that inflation in May and June may rise significantly, with some forecasting agencies even predicting that the CPI will soar from 2.3% to 2.6%. If this comes true, it will have a considerable impact on the market.
Although the data has not yet been published, the current situation is tense enough that it's always necessary to be cautious in advance.
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