I. The dilemma of retail investors: from 'everyone losing money' to 'no place to recover'.
The cryptocurrency market in 2025 is undergoing a 'silent massacre':
Data shock: CoinGecko survey shows that 83% of retail investors have seen their accounts shrink over the past year, and 56% have lost over 50%.
Phenomenon-level magic.:
✅ Bitcoin fluctuating between $100,000 and $120,000 seems like a bull market but leaves those who miss out lamenting.
✅ Altcoins have an average decline of 78%, once 'hundred-fold coins' have become 'zero-value coins'.
✅ MEME coins like TRUMP Token surged 300% in one day, yet those who chased high saw their holdings halved the next day.
Underlying dilemma: when 'working to recover' Plan B also fails due to economic downturns, retail investors are caught in a double bind of 'losing in crypto and losing in the workplace'.
II. Rule failure: old maps can't find new continents.
▍1. The 'quantum collapse' of bull and bear cycles.
Traditional rule: The '4-year halving bull' will fail after the halving in 2024, leading the market into a chaotic state of 'slow bull with no gains, and constant sharp declines'.
Retail investor memory bias:
✅ Believing that 'after the 2021 bull market, there must be a super bull by 2025', yet ignoring the macro variable of the Federal Reserve's continuous rate hikes.
✅ Using 'holding coins for appreciation' to cope with all fluctuations, yet being repeatedly 'stabbed and washed' by the market makers.
▍2. The market makers' 'dimensionality reduction attack' strategy.
Traditional market makers vs. modern institutions: the difficulty for retail investors in responding to traditional market makers' manipulation strategies such as drawing K-lines + cliff-like crashes with positive news + withdrawing liquidity ★★★☆☆ vs. compliant institutions buying ETFs + controlling derivative pricing power + gradual decline like boiling a frog + grid harvesting ★★★★★.
Typical case: Grayscale Fund continuously sold during BTC consolidation through 'premium arbitrage', while retail investors mistakenly believed that 'institutional buying = market activation', thus becoming the bag holders.
▍3. The 'solidification of thought' among retail investors.
Value investing fails: the strategy of selecting stocks based on 'reading white papers + checking GitHub code' has become a joke in the MEME coin era.
Addicted to chasing highs and cutting losses.:
✅ Q2 2025 data: retail investors bought 82% at daily highs during MEME coin chasing trades.
✅ Before a certain AI coin fell 90%, retail holdings accounted for 67%, while institutions had already exited.
III. New cycle survival rules: the evolution from 'gambler' to 'predator'.
▍1. Cognitive reconstruction: admit that 'the market has no rules'.
Counterintuitive thinking.:
✅ Give up the fantasy that 'the next bull market will surely make you rich', and accept that 'the crypto market has entered a game of stock'.
✅ Make 'not losing money' the primary goal, rather than 'catching hundred-fold coins'.
▍2. Strategy iteration: a guide to 'cautious development' for small funds.
▍'33% position management'.
30% stablecoins (USDT/USDC): hedge against sharp declines, ready to bottom-buy at any time.
30% mainstream coins (BTC/ETH): use 'regular investment + grid trading' to capture consolidation profits.
30% 'anti-consensus' assets:
✅ Compliant projects (e.g., coins licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission).
✅ Low market cap high control coins (market cap $50 million - $100 million, easy for market makers to manipulate).
▍'Intelligence first' operational process.
On-chain monitoring: use Glassnode to watch BTC whale address transfers; consider following only after whales increase holdings for 7 consecutive days.
Public opinion filtering.:
✅ Filter out marketing content that claims 'XX coin must rise', and pay attention to 'changes in institutional holdings' and 'interpretations of regulatory policies'.
✅ Case study: Before the SEC sued a certain exchange in March 2025, Coinbase's holdings dropped by 40% one month in advance.
▍3. Mental training: establish a 'anti-fragile' psychological system.
Iron-clad stop-loss rule: unconditionally exit if a single loss exceeds 5%, and if annual cumulative losses exceed 20%, enforce a 3-month halt.
Profit expectation management:
✅ Set monthly profit target at 5%-8% (instead of doubling).
✅ Withdraw $3,000 for every $10,000 earned, converting it to fiat (to avoid the illusion of digital wealth).
IV. Ultimate choice: leave or join?
▍The correct posture of 'if you can't beat them, join them'.
Compliant institutions working: obtain blockchain-related certifications and join licensed exchanges to do 'retail investor education'.
Small fund arbitrage.:
✅ Use Binance / OKX's grid trading feature to profit from price fluctuations during BTC consolidation.
✅ Participate in 'new project arbitrage': only invest in new projects with 'top-tier institutional endorsement + clear financing purposes'.
▍Decent exit 'stop-loss strategy'.
If unable to achieve positive returns for 3 consecutive months, implement the '33% exit strategy':
First week: sell 50% of assets to convert to stablecoins.
Second week: sell another 30%, leaving 20% as an 'observation position'.
Third week: completely exit, using the exit funds to learn practical skills like 'Web3 development' and 'cross-border payments'.
This bear market is eliminating 'gamblers who rely on luck to make money', leaving 'predators who survive by rules'. The real dilemma for retail investors has never been 'not making money', but rather 'not willing to admit the market has changed'. When you stop asking 'why the crypto market doesn't follow the rules' and start studying 'how market makers are exploiting retail investors', you have taken the first step towards a comeback.
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