When there are no opportunities to take advantage of in Launchpool, I will use idle USDT to arbitrage through the Binance USDC/USDT trading pair, with a return rate of 0.01% for each round trip. I wrote a script that typically yields about 4 round trips per day under normal conditions, which means a profit of $4 from $10,000.

Moreover, such arbitrage trades carry low risk and high flexibility, allowing me to stop and retrieve USDT anytime when market conditions arise. Therefore, I am quite sensitive to the USDC/USDT exchange rate. Usually, the USDC exchange rate is inversely proportional to the price of BTC; the lower the exchange rate (below 1), the higher the BTC price.

The logic behind this is that more people are selling USDC to buy USDT, indicating an increased demand for USDT, which enhances the purchasing power within the Binance exchange, benefiting the strong price of BTC.

However, in recent days, I have noticed that even when the USDC/USDT rate has dropped to 0.9994, the price of BTC has not shown significant improvement. Furthermore, the transaction frequency of my USDC/USDT arbitrage program has also greatly decreased (see Figure 3). At first, I thought it was due to the holiday, but even on weekdays, the situation remains the same.

This can only indicate that even though the current USDC exchange rate is low, the liquidity is really poor, and the demand for USDT is weakening, leading to insufficient purchasing power. Friends who are interested can pay attention to this as it may also serve as a supplementary sentiment indicator.