Bitcoin ($BTC ), June 3, 2025. Short-term analysis (1–3 days) with weekly context.
Bitcoin is hovering near a key zone between $104,800 and $106,200. The market is clearly undecided here. What happens next — a break higher toward $108K–$110K or a deeper reload — depends on how price reacts to this range.
Market Structure and Technical Overview
The current setup remains a local consolidation phase after a strong reaction from the $103,200 level. That zone acted as a clear high-demand base, supported by visible absorption.
Key technical levels to watch:
Resistance:
$106,200 — a convergence of:
— 4H imbalance,
— the top of the current range,
— 0.618 Fib retracement from the last drop,
— and a visible cluster of short-term stop-losses.
Support:
$104,500 — local balance area.
$103,200 — the demand origin that led to the weekend bounce.
EMAs:
On 4H, price holds above both EMA 50 and EMA 100 — a bullish short-term sign.
On D1, BTC stays above EMA 100/200 — the overall bullish structure remains intact.
RSI:
H4: 57 — neutral-to-bullish, leaving space for continuation.
D1: 61 — healthy pullback from overbought, now stabilizing in a mid-range zone.
Smart Money Zones and Intentions
The $106,000–$107,000 region remains a high-stakes liquidity pocket, where short-term positioning clusters. It aligns with a recent 4H supply zone from May 29, and is likely loaded with stop-losses from both late buyers and short sellers.
Meanwhile, $103,200 stands out as a point of high-volume absorption, where price bounced hard after a stop-run. That bounce wasn't accidental — it came on strong volume and followed a liquidity sweep, signaling potential interest from large players.
Below $100K lies an area of accumulated long-side liquidation. If the market dips there, it could be a classic Smart Money spring — a quick flush to trigger stops and reload before pushing higher.
Institutional Flows and Market Context
MicroStrategy added 700 BTC at ~$104K — another sign of confidence in this zone as a long-term fair value.
CME BTC Futures show +13% open interest growth over the past week — growing institutional involvement.
ETF flows are neutral so far this week — following light outflows last Friday, there's modest recovery on Monday.
No signs of aggressive distribution yet. The market seems to be pausing and waiting — $106K and $103K are clearly the zones where decisions will be made.
Near-Term Scenarios to Monitor
If price breaks and holds above $106,200 with volume, that would likely trigger a move toward $108,500 and even a retest of the $110K psychological level. This zone holds significant stop liquidity — a break could launch a short squeeze and accelerate the rally.
If $BTC rejects the $106K level again, price may drift back into the $103,200–$104,500 range. This area already acted as demand last week, but a second retest would need to be watched carefully — repeated touches often weaken support.
There's also a possible stop-hunt scenario: a temporary drop below $100,000 to clear out long-side liquidity, followed by a sharp reversal. This wouldn’t break the structure unless price closes below $95K — it could even serve as fuel for a renewed uptrend.
Conclusion
Bitcoin ($BTC ) remains in a controlled accumulation phase at the upper end of its range. The $106K–$107K zone is a decision point — if liquidity above it gets cleared, we could see fast momentum to the upside.
I recommend paying close attention to how price behaves at $106K. A clean break with volume could signal a bullish continuation, while another rejection may mean the market needs one more flush lower to reload.
