Okay, let's clear everything because there is a lot of FUD that the BTC market will drop to 10k and others.
This will be additional validation for the previous analysis regarding the new impulse, future movements, and the potential movements of BTC currently. When btc was at 93k I said that we would enter an upward bullish impulse, and I confirmed the arrival of the upward impulse when btc was at 97k.
I then invited people to onboard when btc was at 97k and waited for it to drop to 95k because I thought it would rise to 100k+
After successfully breaching 100k+, I then made an analysis predicting a NEW ATH, I said it would be mandatory for this new impulse to break the old ath, as a signal that this is a new upward impulse.
And then the old ATH was breached.
Why is that? Because we are indeed in a new impulse. Whatever the label, the current drop should not breach the initial low of wave 1 (74508-76-78k area) according to Elliott wave rules.
If initially I predicted it should not drop below 104184, it is because we were not aware that the last wave had passed and needed re-labeling once 104184 was breached.
✅ Wave 1 (the start of the impulse) is the first upward impulse after a correction from the old ATH of 109,588 to the 74508/76,876/78k area (the start of the upward impulse is between that)
Let's say it's 76,876. ✅ Wave 1 is divided into 5 namely:
1️⃣ 76,876 → 86,496 = 9,620
2️⃣ 86,496 → 84,000 = 2,496 (correction)
3️⃣ 84,000 → 94,696 = 10,696
4️⃣ 94,696 → 91,635 = 3,061 (correction)
5️⃣ 91,635 → 97,895 = 6,260
Total length of wave 1: 97,895 – 76,876 = 21,019
✅ Correction wave 2
From 97,895 → 93,377 = 4,518
Retracement: (4,518 / 21,019) × 100 ≈ 21.5%
✅ Wave 3
1️⃣ 93,377 → 97,687 = 4,310
2️⃣ 97,687 → 95,785 = 1,902 (correction)
3️⃣ 95,785 → 104,350 = 8,565
4️⃣ 104,350 → 102,350 = 2,000 (correction)
5️⃣ 102,350 → 105,819 = 3,469
Total length of wave 3: 105,819 – 93,377 = 12,442
✅ Correction wave 4
From 105,819 → 104,184 = 1,635
Retracement: (1,635 / 12,442) × 100 ≈ 13.1%
✅ Wave 5
1️⃣ 104,184 → 109,857 = 5,673
2️⃣ 109,857 → 106,146 = 3,711 (correction)
3️⃣ 106,146 → 111,874 = 5,728
4️⃣ 111,874 → 110,255 = 1,619 (correction)
5️⃣ 110,255 → 111,980 = 1,725
Total length of wave 5: 111,980 – 104,184 = 7,796
✅ WAVE 1-5 declared COMPLETE with a complete structure.
So is this still valid as a new impulse UP? Yes, VALID. Will we still see an altseason? Yes, but likely after the CORRECTION is COMPLETE.
Elliott Wave rules (that must be followed)
✅ Wave 3 must not be the shortest of waves 1, 3, 5.
✅ The shortest of the waves above is wave 5 (7,796) points
Valid as a new upward impulse.
Although wave 3 is not the longest, as long as wave 3 is not the shortest, from 1,3,5, then this 5-wave structure remains an impulse. Wave 1 is longer due to strong momentum after a large correction. And wave 3 gets market psychology of 'mid momentum'.
Let's look at the impulse conditions I outlined above;
✔️ Wave 3 is not the shortest (valid).
✔️ 5 wave structure visible (valid).
So: This structure = upward impulse. 💪✨
Right now the price has breached the start of the last wave (5), already at 103,069.
Is it still valid? Remains valid because this means all wave 1-5 above is counted as 1 wave (wave1) and the current correction is corrective wave two in a larger structure. It could be corrective wave 2/4 within large wave 3/5 depending on the shape that forms later where we can relabel. The point is now in wave two wanting to enter wave three in a larger structure.
If the current price is correcting wave 2 from the first new impulse (1) (which 1-5 is complete), then breaching the start of small wave 5 is not a problem.
Why? Because:
Large wave 2 can drop deeper than wave 5, as long as it does not exceed the start of small wave 1 (i.e., staying between 74508-76,876 to 78k.
What is important to determine if the larger trend has ended is the start of small wave 1
If this correction drops below the start of small wave 5, but does not breach the start of small wave 1, then:
🔹 This is just a normal correction of wave 2 from the large upward impulse and can subsequently enter the next upward impulse; wave three in the larger wave (3/5). Because 1~2 then ~3 is the next wave.
🔹 Does not cancel the upward impulse trend.
So safe! What needs to be noted:
Start of large wave 1 (74508-76,876/78k) = 'validity limit' of large upward impulse.
If it breaches 74508-76,876-78k = no longer an impulse, so I also have to reevaluate the structure. And the altseason wave we are waiting for may not come. Because this means we are in a larger downtrend.
If this correction indeed corrects the entire larger impulse cycle from 15,476 to 111,980, then:
Length of the large impulse = 111,980 – 15,476 = 96,504
Retrace 38.2% = 111,980 – (96,504 × 0.382) ≈ 111,980 – 36,845 = 75,135
Retrace 61.8% = 111,980 – (96,504 × 0.618) ≈ 111,980 – 59,638 = 52,342
(But it is very unlikely that this is a downtrend and such a correction)
As long as it does not breach the start of wave 1, it is still safe & valid as corrective wave 2.
The large corrective wave two usually retraces a bit deeper because it corrects the entire rise from 1-5 as long as it does not breach the start of the impulse, but ideally, it should not be deeper than the previous correction (109588-74508) which looks like correcting one cycle of rise from the beginning; 15,476$
The correction target is between this if the start of large wave 1 of the new impulse starts from 74508
✅ Retrace 23.6%:
111,980 – (37,472 × 0.236) = 111,980 – 8,836 ≈ 103,144 (already breached).
✅ Retrace 38.2%:
111,980 – (37,472 × 0.382) = 111,980 – 14,309 ≈ 97,671
50% retrace:
111,980 – (37,472 × 0.5) = 111,980 – 18,736 =93,24461.8% retrace:
111,980 – (37,472 × 0.618) = 111,980 – 23,153 ≈88,827
Hope this is useful.
