【Systematic Deduction of the Constant Total Characteristics of Gold and Bitcoin Summary】
Summary: The Prisoner's Dilemma of Bitcoin's Constant Total Supply
Dimension / Gold's Constant Lessons / Strengthening and Alienation of Bitcoin
Scarcity / Physical Mining Limits / Algorithmic Enforced Scarcity + Private Key Loss Intensifies Contraction
Liquidity / Gold Standard Collapses Due to Insufficient Liquidity / On-chain Congestion + Derivatives Detached from Physical (CME Futures Trading Volume Accounts for 320% of Spot)
Power Distribution / Central Bank Gold Reserve Monopoly / Institutional/Government ETF Holdings + Mining Pool Hashrate Oligopoly
Societal Acceptance / Globally Widely Recognized Store of Value / Only 130 million users, less than 1.6% of the global population
Conclusion: Bitcoin's constant total supply is the cornerstone of its value narrative, yet it is also the “Achilles' heel” on the way to becoming a mainstream currency. It plays a pioneering role against the excessive issuance of fiat currency (such as hedging against the depreciation of the dollar in 2024), but its rigid algorithm struggles to adapt to a flexible economy. The future compromise path may be: becoming a reserve asset (non-circulating currency) + volatility derivative hedging + complementary agreements with CBDCs. Just as gold has never truly exited the historical stage, but is no longer a monetary anchor — Bitcoin's ultimate destiny may be as the “gold bar of the digital age,” rather than the backbone of a new currency system.