假设黄金变成恒量

[Analysis of the Economic Impact of Stable Gold (Part 3)]

3. Dramatic Changes in Financial Markets and Asset Pricing

1. Full Return of Gold's Monetary Function

Upgrade of Collateral Status: CME has accepted gold as margin for futures trading, and JPMorgan allows gold-backed loans. If gold is stable, its collateral range will expand to bonds, derivatives, and other fields, encroaching on the share of the US dollar.

Legalization of Payment Methods: Utah in the United States and Switzerland have legislated to recognize gold as legal tender, which can be used for tax payments and debt repayment. If promoted globally, the status of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin will be challenged.

2. Revaluation of Asset Prices and Soaring Volatility

Asset Class / Short-term Shock / Long-term Trend
Stocks / Plummeting due to liquidity tightening / High-leverage tech stock valuation restructuring
Bonds / Jump in real yields / Differentiation of sovereign debt credit risk
Commodities / Industrial metals follow gold down / Agricultural products increase in price due to deflation

Historical Reference: After gold peaked at $1917 in 2011, US stocks outperformed gold prices by 300% over 10 years. A stable gold price will reverse this trend.

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【The 'virtual currency linked to U.S. debt' policy promoted by the Trump administration is placed within the framework of political and economic games, combining the analytical logic of constant gold and constant Bitcoin, systematically deducing its strategic intentions, implementation paths, risk contradictions, and global impacts 2】

2. Implementation Path and Tool Innovation: From Stablecoins to National Crypto Reserves

1. Debt Conversion Mechanism of Stablecoin Legislation

Tool / Mechanism /
Contribution to U.S. Debt Demand

Off-chain collateralized /Stablecoin USDT (66% of reserves in short-term debt), USDC (40% in short-term debt) holds $120 billion in U.S. debt, accounting for 0.4% of tradable U.S. debt / Current marginal effect is limited, but growth rate is rapid

Bank-issued stablecoins / JPMorgan (JPM Coin), New York Community Bank (USDF) enter the scene, institutional-level issuance expands the base for treasury bond subscriptions / Potential incremental demand exceeds $1 trillion

Tokenized U.S. Debt (RWA) / Short-term treasury bond funds (such as Ondo OUSG) yield 5.5%, attracting DeFi funds, with scale increasing 4-fold annually to $3.4 billion / Opening up an on-chain 'new buyer market'

2. Leverage Operations of National Crypto Reserves

Bitcoin Strategic Reserves: The government purchases Bitcoin at low prices to establish reserves (like the El Salvador model), profiting by selling after raising the market. If the U.S. holds 100,000 Bitcoins rising to $200,000, it could profit $100 billion.

Political Tokenization: Trump issues 'TRUMP Coin' with a market cap soaring to $30 billion in 12 hours, personal holdings valued at $22.4 billion, demonstrating the capital circulation of 'celebrity token—fiat currency—U.S. debt'.

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【Systematic Deduction of the Constant Characteristics of Gold and Bitcoin II】

II. Failure of Currency Functions and Market Fragmentation

1. Failure of Value Measurement

Currency Function / Bitcoin Performance / Comparison with Gold

Medium of Exchange / Transaction Speed 7 Transactions/Second (Visa is 24,000 Transactions/Second), High Congestion Fees Exceed $50 / Physical Delivery is Slow but High Liquidity After Financialization

Unit of Account /2021 Tesla Model 3 Price 0.8 BTC, 2025 Same Model Only Requires 0.08 BTC, Merchants Cannot Stabilize Pricing / Gold Product Pricing Requires Frequent Adjustments

Store of Value / 53% Drop in a Single Week in 2021, Over 20% Daily Volatility in 2024 / Annual Volatility Rate About 15%-20%

2. Controversy Over Hedging Properties

The Correlation Between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Index Rose from 0.3 in 2020 to 0.7 in 2024, Falling Simultaneously During a Crash in the U.S. Stock Market (e.g., -37.2% in June 2022), Deviating from the “Digital Gold” Narrative.

Local Hedging Scenario: Only Shows Alternative Fiat Function in Countries with Hyperinflation (e.g., Venezuela, Turkey), but Trading Volume is Very Small.

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【Systematic Derivation of the Constant Total Characteristics of Gold and Bitcoin One】

I. Deflationary Spiral and Economic Activity Stagnation

1. Absolute Scarcity vs Economic Growth Demand

Bitcoin's annual inflation rate has decreased from an initial 50% to 0.9% after the halving in 2024, with a complete cessation of issuance by 2140. This rigid supply curve fundamentally conflicts with global economic growth (approximately 3% per year): if Bitcoin becomes the dominant currency, the unit value will be forced to continuously rise, suppressing consumption and investment.

Historical Evidence: During the gold standard period (1870-1914), monetary supply lagged behind productivity improvements, leading to long-term deflation (annual price decline of 1.5%). Bitcoin's supply elasticity is even lower, posing greater deflation risks.

2. Debt Crisis Amplifier

Against the backdrop of a global debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 328%, a Bitcoin standard would lead to a surge in actual debt burdens. For instance, if a company borrows 100 BTC, and due to deflation, the purchasing power of BTC doubles, the actual repayment value would be equivalent to 200 BTC.

Real Case: After El Salvador designated Bitcoin as legal tender, government bonds were downgraded by rating agencies due to a sudden increase in debt repayment pressure.

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【The 'virtual currency and U.S. debt linkage' policy promoted by the Trump administration is placed within the framework of political and economic games, combining the analytical logic of gold constancy and Bitcoin constancy, systematically deducing its strategic intentions, implementation paths, risk contradictions, and global impacts Conclusion】

Conclusion: Trump's virtual currency - U.S. debt linkage strategy is essentially the 'on-chain breakout' of a debt empire after traditional financial tools have failed. In the short term, it may extend the life of U.S. debt (for example, stablecoins creating a $2 trillion demand), but in the long term, it will drag the world into a new battlefield of 'algorithmic colonialism'—as U.S. dollar hegemony shifts from oil to code, the fragility of the global economy is not only not diminished but is amplified due to the inherent volatility of cryptocurrencies. History will prove that while technology can reshape the form of currency, it cannot eliminate the exploitative contradictions inherent in hegemony.

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【Systematic Deduction of the Constant Total Characteristics of Gold and Bitcoin Summary】

Summary: The Prisoner's Dilemma of Bitcoin's Constant Total Supply

Dimension / Gold's Constant Lessons / Strengthening and Alienation of Bitcoin

Scarcity / Physical Mining Limits / Algorithmic Enforced Scarcity + Private Key Loss Intensifies Contraction

Liquidity / Gold Standard Collapses Due to Insufficient Liquidity / On-chain Congestion + Derivatives Detached from Physical (CME Futures Trading Volume Accounts for 320% of Spot)

Power Distribution / Central Bank Gold Reserve Monopoly / Institutional/Government ETF Holdings + Mining Pool Hashrate Oligopoly

Societal Acceptance / Globally Widely Recognized Store of Value / Only 130 million users, less than 1.6% of the global population

Conclusion: Bitcoin's constant total supply is the cornerstone of its value narrative, yet it is also the “Achilles' heel” on the way to becoming a mainstream currency. It plays a pioneering role against the excessive issuance of fiat currency (such as hedging against the depreciation of the dollar in 2024), but its rigid algorithm struggles to adapt to a flexible economy. The future compromise path may be: becoming a reserve asset (non-circulating currency) + volatility derivative hedging + complementary agreements with CBDCs. Just as gold has never truly exited the historical stage, but is no longer a monetary anchor — Bitcoin's ultimate destiny may be as the “gold bar of the digital age,” rather than the backbone of a new currency system.

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【Systematic Derivation of the Constant Supply Characteristics of Gold and Bitcoin III】

III. Institutional Monopoly and Power Restructuring

1. Concentration of Chips

2. 3% of addresses control 95.8% of Bitcoin; institutions like MicroStrategy hoard over 200,000 coins (accounting for 1% of the circulation). This whale-dominated pattern forces retail investors to accept price manipulation.

Mining Power Monopoly: In 2024, three major mining pools control 61% of the total network hash rate. After China's mining ban, Kazakhstan has become a new center, increasing geopolitical risks.

2. Regulatory Arbitrage and National Games

The U.S. attracts long-term capital such as pensions through Bitcoin ETFs (e.g., BlackRock's IBIT). By 2024, Wisconsin's pension fund holdings increased to $321 million, creating a "hedging pool against dollar depreciation."

New Colonial Risks: Bitcoin mining consumes more electricity annually than the entire usage of Argentina, with energy costs being passed on to developing countries (e.g., Iran, Kazakhstan).

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【The policy of "linking virtual currencies to U.S. Treasury bonds" promoted by the Trump administration is placed within the framework of political and economic games, integrating the analytical logic of gold stability and Bitcoin stability, systematically deducing its strategic intentions, implementation paths, risk contradictions, and global impacts -】

 1. Policy Logic and Strategic Framework: "Crypto Breakthrough" under Debt Crisis

1. The coercive mechanism of the U.S. debt predicament

Out-of-control debt scale: The U.S. debt scale has surpassed $36 trillion, with $6.5 trillion maturing by June 2025. The reduction of holdings by foreign central banks (China's holdings fell to $765.4 billion, Japan has consecutively reduced its holdings) has led to an expanded demand gap.

Ineffectiveness of traditional financing: The Trump tax cut law (OBBB) has led to a surge in front-loading deficits, combined with tariff policies that have pushed inflation expectations to 5%, exacerbating the sell-off of U.S. Treasury bonds (the 10-year yield soared by 50 basis points in a week).

→ The essence of linking virtual currencies is a new path for debt monetization: introducing cryptocurrency liquidity into the U.S. Treasury market, replacing the traditional buyer role.

2. Triple Strategic Objectives

Short-term demand creation: By mandating stablecoins to be backed by U.S. Treasury bonds (e.g., the "GENIUS Act" requires 100% pegging to the dollar/short-term bonds), the scale of stablecoins (currently $270 billion) can be transformed into purchasing power for U.S. Treasury bonds. If it reaches a scale of $2 trillion, it could absorb about 5% of short-term government bonds.

Long-term dollar hegemony 3.0: U.S. dollar stablecoins account for 99% globally, becoming "digital dollar agents" in cross-border payments (e.g., Yiwu foreign trade in China) and inflationary countries (Latin America, Africa), undermining the monetary sovereignty of other countries.

Fiscal cost shifting: The concept of BitBonds envisions binding government bond interest to Bitcoin appreciation; if Bitcoin rises to $200,000, government reserve sales could cover hundreds of billions in debt interest.

[Analysis of the Economic Impact of Gold Standard Summary]

Summary: The Tear Between Ideal Solutions and Harsh Realities

A fixed amount of gold can theoretically constrain the reckless issuance of currency (for example, the dollar has depreciated by 98% over 50 years), but human dependence on 'flexible power' makes it difficult to sustain. The choice of human society ultimately comes down to choosing a crisis: either the crisis of depreciation of fiat currency or the suffocation crisis of the gold standard. The current 'partial return of gold currency attributes' (such as central banks increasing holdings and collateral functions) may be a compromise path, but a comprehensive anchoring will trigger systemic shocks, which must be approached with caution.

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【The 'virtual currency linked to US debt' policy promoted by the Trump administration is placed within the framework of political and economic games. By combining the analytical logic of gold stability and Bitcoin stability, this systematically deduces its strategic intentions, implementation paths, risk contradictions, and global impacts Four】

Four, the reconstruction effect of the global pattern: New colonialism and accelerated de-dollarization

1. The 'double-edged sword' of dollar hegemony 3.0

Positive aspect: Stablecoins reduce SWIFT costs and penetrate developing countries (for example, unbanked individuals in Africa holding USDT on their phones), expanding the underlying use of the dollar.

Negative aspect: The EU and Hong Kong accelerate legislation to support euro/HKD stablecoins, while China's CIPS trading volume is projected to surge by 63% in 2025, promoting the internationalization of the renminbi as a hedge.

2. Globalization of the debt crisis transfer

New dependency system: The US exports dollar liquidity through stablecoins, forcing emerging markets to hold US debt reserves (for example, citizens of Turkey and Argentina hoarding USDT for hedging), recreating dependence on 'petrodollars.'

Interest rate policy hijacking: Trump pressures the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates; if successful, it will lower US debt yields, but the demand for stablecoins can partially offset overseas sell-offs, maintaining the illusion of debt sustainability.

【The 'virtual currency linked to U.S. debt' policy promoted by the Trump administration is placed within the framework of political and economic games. Combining the analysis logic of gold stability and Bitcoin stability, it systematically deduces its strategic intentions, implementation paths, risk contradictions, and global impacts Five】

Five, Scenario Simulation and Historical Positioning: Three Endings of a Gamble

Scenario / Trigger Conditions / U.S. Fiscal Outcomes / Global System Shock

Success / Bitcoin rises to over 200,000 + stablecoins reach 2 trillion / Debt costs decrease, digital dollar hegemony solidified / Loss of monetary sovereignty in emerging markets, crypto dollarization

Stalemate / Bitcoin volatility + slow growth of stablecoins / Local relief of interest pressure, but deficits continue / Rise of multi-polar stablecoins (Euro/HKD)

Collapse / Bitcoin crashes + stablecoin run / Intensified selling of treasuries, downgrade of sovereign ratings Gold / CBDC accelerates replacement of the dollar, ending hegemony

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[Analysis of the Impact of Constant Gold on the Economy II]

II. Restructuring of the International Financial and Trade System

1. The Cost of Exchange Rate Stability and Trade Imbalances

The Return to Fixed Exchange Rates: National currencies are pegged to gold content, and exchange rate fluctuations disappear, but at the cost of sacrificing economic autonomy. For example, the Bretton Woods system required member states to strictly adhere to exchange rate bands, which eventually collapsed due to the US fiscal deficit (gold outflow).

Escalation of Trade Protectionism: Countries with current account deficits experience gold outflows and are forced to adopt tariffs or capital controls. Similar operations to Trump's imposition of steel tariffs in 2025 may become normalized.

2. Competition for Reserve Assets and Geopolitical Conflict

Gold Reserves = Financial Power: The United States' 8133 tons of gold reserves (accounting for 23% of global official reserves) will give it absolute dominance. Emerging countries need to purchase gold at high prices (such as the People's Bank of China's recent increase to 2269 tons), triggering a resource war.

Reserve Authenticity Crisis: If rumors of a "empty vault" at Fort Knox turn out to be true, global trust in the dollar will collapse, triggering a reorganization of the monetary system.
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【The Trump administration's policy of linking 'virtual currencies to U.S. debt' is placed within the framework of political and economic games, combining the analytical logic of gold stability and Bitcoin stability, systematically deducing its strategic intentions, implementation paths, risk contradictions, and global impacts Three】

Three, Risks and Structural Contradictions: Policy Fragility Under High Volatility

1. The cryptocurrency market backlashes against U.S. debt credit

Volatility transmission: Bitcoin's 2025 retreat of 25% to $80,000, ETF daily redemption of $1.1 billion; if national reserves in Bitcoin plummet, it will directly impact fiscal debt repayment capacity.

Bank run chain reaction: Stablecoins rely on short-term U.S. debt liquidity; once decoupled (as USDC fell to $0.95 due to the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in 2023), it may trigger a wave of treasury sell-offs.

2. Conflict between sovereign credit and algorithmic power

Dollar value anchoring fragmentation: 43 U.S. states have declared gold as legal tender, weakening the uniqueness of the dollar; if Bitcoin bonds are promoted, it will further differentiate the 'fiat currency—gold—Bitcoin' triple anchoring system.

Regulatory arbitrage out of control: Private stablecoin issuers (such as Tether) have become the world's seventh-largest holder of U.S. debt, but their asset transparency is questionable (in 2021, they were fined $41 million for false reserves), and private interests may hijack national credit.

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[Analysis of the Economic Impact of Constant Gold (Part Four)]

Four, Social Structure and Power Transfer

1. Wealth Redistribution Effect

Creditor vs. Debtor: Deflation benefits creditors (those holding cash), while mortgage holders see their actual debt rise. From 1929 to 1933, nominal debt in the United States remained unchanged, but the real burden increased by 40%.

Rise of Power in Gold-Producing Regions: Countries like Russia and Australia gain geopolitical leverage, potentially forming a "Gold Cartel" similar to OPEC.

2. Growth of the Underground Economy and Black Market

Surge in Illegal Gold Trading: For example, private gold hoarding in India exceeds 25,000 tons, with the government previously enforcing confiscation. Under a constant gold price, black market transactions may expand to evade regulation.
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[Analysis of the Economic Impact of Gold Stability Five]

Five, Unsustainable Challenges and Internal Contradictions

1. Supply Rigidity vs Economic Elasticity

The annual supply growth of gold is only 1.5%, far below the global economic potential growth rate of 3%. If forcibly anchored, either the economy stagnates or the gold standard becomes a mere formality (as seen later in the Bretton Woods system).

2. Financial Innovation's Corrosion of the System

Gold derivatives (futures, ETFs) may detach from physical support, repeating the 2008 'paper gold' bubble. The CME inventory's sudden increase from 500 tons to 1000 tons in a 'soft squeeze' is a warning sign.

3. Risk of Technological Disruption

If AI-driven productivity revolutions, like DeepSeek, occur, the value scale function of gold may malfunction. For example, during the electrical revolution from 1870 to 1890, deflation and growth coexisted under the gold standard, but social contradictions intensified.
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【Systematic Deduction of the Constant Total Characteristics of Gold and Bitcoin Five】

Five, Ultimate Contradiction: Algorithmic Idealism vs Human Needs

The design of Bitcoin's constant total supply exposes a threefold rift:

1. Deflationary Justice vs Economic Resilience

While a fixed total supply suppresses inflation, it stifles the space for Keynesian regulation. During the 2020 pandemic, the Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet by $3.3 trillion to rescue the market, while the Bitcoin system lacks such a mechanism.

2. Code Absolutism vs Social Consensus Iteration

Hard forks (like Bitcoin Cash) expose community divisions, and the constant total supply cannot compromise with new demands (such as increasing supply to address scaling).

3. Globalist Vision vs Sovereign Barriers

94% of central banks are developing CBDCs (China's digital yuan pilot has over 400 million people), reclaiming monetary sovereignty through national credit and squeezing Bitcoin payment scenarios.

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