【The 'virtual currency linked to U.S. debt' policy promoted by the Trump administration is placed within the framework of political and economic games. Combining the analysis logic of gold stability and Bitcoin stability, it systematically deduces its strategic intentions, implementation paths, risk contradictions, and global impacts Five】
Five, Scenario Simulation and Historical Positioning: Three Endings of a Gamble
Scenario / Trigger Conditions / U.S. Fiscal Outcomes / Global System Shock
Success / Bitcoin rises to over 200,000 + stablecoins reach 2 trillion / Debt costs decrease, digital dollar hegemony solidified / Loss of monetary sovereignty in emerging markets, crypto dollarization
Stalemate / Bitcoin volatility + slow growth of stablecoins / Local relief of interest pressure, but deficits continue / Rise of multi-polar stablecoins (Euro/HKD)
Collapse / Bitcoin crashes + stablecoin run / Intensified selling of treasuries, downgrade of sovereign ratings Gold / CBDC accelerates replacement of the dollar, ending hegemony