【Systematic Derivation of the Constant Total Characteristics of Gold and Bitcoin One】
I. Deflationary Spiral and Economic Activity Stagnation
1. Absolute Scarcity vs Economic Growth Demand
Bitcoin's annual inflation rate has decreased from an initial 50% to 0.9% after the halving in 2024, with a complete cessation of issuance by 2140. This rigid supply curve fundamentally conflicts with global economic growth (approximately 3% per year): if Bitcoin becomes the dominant currency, the unit value will be forced to continuously rise, suppressing consumption and investment.
Historical Evidence: During the gold standard period (1870-1914), monetary supply lagged behind productivity improvements, leading to long-term deflation (annual price decline of 1.5%). Bitcoin's supply elasticity is even lower, posing greater deflation risks.
2. Debt Crisis Amplifier
Against the backdrop of a global debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 328%, a Bitcoin standard would lead to a surge in actual debt burdens. For instance, if a company borrows 100 BTC, and due to deflation, the purchasing power of BTC doubles, the actual repayment value would be equivalent to 200 BTC.
Real Case: After El Salvador designated Bitcoin as legal tender, government bonds were downgraded by rating agencies due to a sudden increase in debt repayment pressure.