Wishing all friends a healthy Dragon Boat Festival! The PCE data yesterday was in line with expectations, and market sentiment can be stabilized. The U.S. inflation rate is 6.6%, significantly lower than expected. Previously, Powell was reluctant to cut interest rates because he considered that tariff policies could lead to excessive inflation. Now that inflation is basically normal, most institutions in the market are betting on the Fed cutting rates in September. Currently, many people are a bit pessimistic about the market, which has been stirred by Trump. However, I want to say that regardless of whether Trump creates trouble or if the strong hands manipulate the market, based on last night's PCE inflation data, interest rates are expected to be cut this year!
Trump's words always bring a lot of uncertainty, but it has been mentioned multiple times before that the gains before the interest rate cuts are all uncertain and extremely short-lived. The market was still good in the early hours, even Trump saying that the East University violated the agreement was still relatively stable. Moreover, Trump financed 2.44 billion USD to purchase BTC. As a result, just after midnight, the sanctions against East University were announced, leading to simultaneous declines in the S&P and BTC, piercing below 104. At 6 AM, Trump again mentioned tariffs, increasing uncertainty once again. The U.S. stock market is closed, so BTC bore all the brunt and continued to fluctuate downward.
Overall, the uncertainty surrounding tariffs has increased again. It’s already the weekend, and on Friday, BTC’s ETF has been flowing out, which means the weekend might not be very calm. Since U.S. stocks are closed on the weekend, combined with liquidity being low, institutional outflows will amplify weekend panic. So, for the next couple of days, just stay put and brush some ALPHA points. At least wait for the sentiment when the U.S. market opens on Monday.
Next, the macro rhythm
CPI: June 11, July 9, August 13, Tariff negotiations deadline: EU July 9, others July 8, China August 10.
Stablecoin legislation: before August 4
If the June CPI is lower than expected, rate cut expectations will increase, and the market will stop falling. If the CPI looks particularly good, it is very likely to initiate the next round of increases.
With the tariff negotiations scheduled for July and August, and the expected rate cuts in September, the narrative for the latter half of the year will emerge, so there will be plenty of opportunities to get in.
There’s not much to say about altcoins; most follow the market downwards. Thus, discussing more narratives about altcoins is not very useful because most people only have confidence in the price performance of altcoins. Just like the 5 billion USD that FTX paid out yesterday, many people expect this money to flow into the market, but after the payout, there hasn’t been any noticeable change. The main reason is still that Trump's words are disrupting the market. We have no choice but to endure this stage of market conditions affected by tariffs. However, I still have confidence that this fund from FTX will gradually enter the market; just give the market some time.
Finally, regarding altcoins, I personally think that the previously strong coins are now at the best time for orders, like Pepe in the meme sector. It has gone through independent markets multiple times. The cost-effectiveness of PEPE below 1 is absolutely good, and you can also buy in batches at the current price. If it drops below 1, add to your position to lower the average cost.
Next is Sui, which is well-known for being strong. Regardless of the market's ups and downs, it directly ignored the movements and had independent markets in the previous cycle. This time it interacted with the market and reached 3. It's also possible to buy below 3. After all, the CETUS under the Sui ecosystem was hacked a couple of days ago, and Sui stepped in to rescue it. This represents that the Sui ecosystem is definitely strong and is aimed at expanding this ecosystem and creating practical applications. If a leading entity in an ecosystem gives up on its sub-coins, it proves that the ecosystem has reached its end. If the leader doesn't care about the smaller coins, what can the leader expect? Sui demonstrates this point, and it's absolutely worth trusting!
There is also AAVE, which had a cost profit of around 130 in the last cycle. This wave hasn't really dropped yet, so there's still a chance to get back in. Strong coins can only be waited for during a black swan event or a sudden crash of BTC. It can be seen that AAVE is quite strong this time; those who haven't gotten in before can only wait a bit longer. It's expected to consider the range of 220-200!
Finally, this cycle is still quite difficult for altcoins. In short-term trading, one should not be greedy, and it's not yet time for long-term holdings. The zero-cost profits from the previous cycle are also gradually decreasing. I believe a new cycle will come soon, so please hold on and get through this period. Before the market starts, it's essential to layout and grasp a cycle. The profits owed to us by the market in the first half of the year will ultimately be returned to us!
I am planning to create a circle for brushing alpha points. I wonder if everyone is interested. If so, leave a message. If there are enough people, I will start preparing the group and distribute some airdrops every month. Given the current market environment, this is still quite appealing. Let's see everyone's willingness!
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