Last night, there was a $350 million outflow from Bitcoin ETFs, ending nine consecutive days of net inflow, which should be influenced by U.S. stocks and macro conditions. However, the good news is that BlackRock still has $125 million inflow. As long as BlackRock continues to hold on, it doesn't count as a reversal. ETH's ETF continued to see inflows last night, marking nine consecutive days of positive flow, with nearly $100 million inflow last night, which is the highest in recent times. This can explain Ethereum/BTC's recent strong performance, whereas the overall performance of altcoins last night was relatively weak. The SOL version of MicroStrategy even sold Bitcoin to buy back SOL, which couldn’t save the market.
Besides a few with significant positive news, like LPT and POKT being listed on Upbit, most altcoins are simply following the market down. This performance is still due to insufficient liquidity in the altcoin market. The driving force behind this bull market's rise comes entirely from institutions. In the eyes of institutions, altcoins are just like debris on the roadside. Apart from the previously mentioned ETF concept, WLFI concept, SEC concept, and the leading infrastructure of RWA, AI, public chain, and DeFi, it’s hard for other primary altcoins to have a certain follow-up market. Each rebound could be the future's highest point, so don’t hesitate to change positions. Additionally, today the second round of FTX compensation will begin, with a total amount exceeding $5 billion, far more than the first batch of $1.16 billion. Compared to the first round, this round of compensation has two major advantages: the amount is large, and the scale of fund release is more than five times last time, and the market environment is better: Bitcoin is stable at a high level, sentiment is warming, and liquidity is improving.
This means a large number of users will regain disposable income and are willing to return to the market. However, this wave of FTT has not moved independently due to the influence of the market, which is a bit regrettable. Everyone can see that this week, there has actually been a stream of positive news for Bitcoin, but not only did the price not rise, it even fell. On Tuesday, the Trump group announced a $2.5 billion investment in BTC, on Wednesday announced that pension funds could buy BTC, and on Thursday, tariffs were suddenly canceled. In short, funding and sentiment have reached their peak. The problem is that with this wave of good news, Bitcoin still fell. Part of the reason is that Bitcoin had already reached a historical high before these messages came out, while the U.S. stock market had just recovered from the tariff decline on February 25. Now it feels like the good news has turned into bad news. Ethereum also has a fundamental aspect; although the market was in a pullback last night, the SEC released a very important document.
The SEC stated that three types of POS staking activities do not constitute securities activities. This policy clarifies that Ethereum does not belong to securities, and Ethereum ETF staking also does not belong to securities. This is a clear regulation, and this policy allows those investors worried about Ethereum to feel completely at ease.
Moreover, this policy is almost custom-designed for Ethereum ETF staking, as after the Prague upgrade, these three categories of Ethereum all comply. Many traditional institutions that are still observing have a lot of funds waiting for the Ethereum ETF staking approval.
Therefore, many people say that without interest rate cuts, the market lacks liquidity and funding inflows, which is simply not the case. Everyone should think about it: the money from interest rate cuts and quantitative easing is just a part flowing into the crypto circle; is that amount more than the money entering the crypto circle from the entire U.S. stock institutions?
Next, the comprehensive explosion of altcoins should not happen; structural opportunities will come!
There should not be a comprehensive altcoin season; there will definitely be a structural altcoin season. Why do I think there won't be a comprehensive altcoin season? Many people believe there will be a comprehensive altcoin season, citing examples from 2021, where Bitcoin rises, then Ethereum rises, and then altcoins rise. This view doesn’t apply to this cycle; it’s like carving a boat to seek a sword. In 2015, 2017, and 2021, the number and types of altcoins were not that many, and in 2021, due to the macro environment of unlimited quantitative easing, many office workers also worked from home, making the trend of trading cryptocurrencies quite popular.
What’s the current environment? Interest rates maintain high levels, and the number of altcoins is increasing. There’s also much less remote work, and from the monthly bull market observations in the crypto circle, such as in March and November 2024, altcoins (including Ethereum) have not reached new highs since then. Therefore, when entering this speculative market, don’t have any illusions about a comprehensive altcoin season.
There will definitely be a structural altcoin season. It's quite simple; this round of bull market's altcoin season is divided into several phases of speculation. From October 2023 to March 2024, the focus was on the engraving AI track and MEME track, such as ORDI, ARKM, WLD, PEPE, and INJ, which have seen dozens of times increases.
From November 2024 to January 2025, trading MEME mainstream coins like PNUT, ACT, XRP, ADA, HBAR, and XLM has yielded around tenfold increases. Next year, there will still be a wave of altcoin structural market; it all depends on whether you can choose the right track and the right coins. The altcoin season is not non-existent, and it operates in phases. This bull market has shown a structural altcoin trend, which makes it difficult for many to seize the opportunity and choose the right track and coins. This is why many people find it so hard to make money in this bull market.
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