#PCE数据来袭 ATFX Forex Market: Today at 20:30, the U.S. Department of Commerce will release the annual core PCE price index for April, with the previous value at 2.6% and an expected value of 2.5%, a forecast decrease of only 0.1 percentage points. However, the PCE data for March has just experienced a sharp decline, and even if the April data shows a smaller decrease, it will raise market expectations for a steady decline in U.S. inflation. When the Federal Reserve adjusts monetary policy, it will assess the trend of inflation based on PCE data. If the April PCE annual rate decreases, it indicates that the current benchmark interest rate significantly suppresses demand for goods, increasing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts, which would boost the U.S. dollar index. The U.S. core CPI annual rate for April has already been released, with the latest value at 2.8%, unchanged from the previous value. In most cases, the core CPI annual rate and the core PCE annual rate resonate, so the gap between the April core PCE annual rate and the previous value is unlikely to be significant, with a high probability of achieving the expected slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points. Historical data shows that since February of this year, the core CPI annual rate curve has started to decline, and there has been no significant rebound to date, indicating a reduced likelihood of a resurgence of high inflation.

Currently, the movement of the U.S. dollar index is dominated by news, and the influence of economic data on market trends is relatively weak. On Wednesday, it was reported that the U.S. Trade Court rejected Trump's aggressive policies from April, but on Thursday, the situation reversed again as the U.S. Circuit Court suspended the Trade Court's ruling. The erratic policy changes have caused violent fluctuations in the U.S. dollar index and non-U.S. currencies. Yesterday, the dollar index first surged to 100.55 and then fell back to a low of 99.22. As of today, the dollar index is operating below the 100 mark.

To predict changes in U.S. prices, in addition to CPI data, one can also observe the changes in the commodity market, especially the crude oil market. Changes in crude oil prices directly affect logistics and transportation costs, indirectly impacting the prices of most goods and services. In April, U.S. crude oil prices fell sharply by 18.55%, reaching a low of $55.12 per barrel, due to OPEC's increase in production and weak demand. Based on this, it is unlikely that the U.S. April PCE annual rate data will show an increase. Due to the lagging effect of crude oil price changes on overall prices, the probability of the April PCE data remaining stable or showing a slight decrease is high. If the decline in oil prices continues, CPI and PCE data for May may see significant decreases. $BTC $ETH $BNB