#PCE数据来袭 Waking up from a deep sleep, altcoins collectively plunged, with declines generally exceeding 10%. The confidence and wallets of many retail investors, which had just been built up, were shattered into pieces. It is foreseeable that during this round, many people's mental states will gradually explode, even leading them to doubt life.

But amid this wailing, I noticed a detail: Ethereum did not choose to plummet. Instead, it is trying to stabilize its rhythm. This suggests that the main force's strategy may have shifted from 'washing Ethereum and altcoins' to 'only washing altcoins and maintaining the main chain.'

If this shift holds, the crash of altcoins this round could very well be the last step before a major market movement.

It is important to know that the current decline of altcoins feels very bad, especially for those who didn't take profits at Ethereum 2770 during this wave; there is almost no operational space for those wanting to average down. On one hand, funds may have already been exhausted, and on the other hand, psychological pressure is difficult to sustain operations.

If Bitcoin continues to retrace, for example testing around 100,000, then altcoins are very likely to plummet again, further igniting emotions. It is often in this state of 'emotional extremes' that the market truly begins to take off.

During this retracement process, I noticed one point: the main force is deliberately lowering market expectations. For example, at the recent Bitcoin conference, Trump's son and several other speakers generally expected only between 100,000 and 200,000, which is surprisingly understated compared to previous expectations that often reached 500,000 or even millions.

The market structure has actually changed. Retail investors are no longer easily fooled, and the proportion of those lying flat with full positions has clearly increased. People have also become smarter: no short-term trading, just holding. The main force, facing this situation of 'dead holding,' has only two options - either truly break through and follow a trend, or continue to use fluctuations to wear down willpower, grinding diamond hands down one by one.

You can imagine that if Ethereum really goes through a cycle in the future, such as dropping from 3500 to 1800, then pushing to 4000, then retracing, and then going up again, each time you feel it's a breakout, but each time it gets pulled back. After one or two times, you can still hold on, but after three or four times, even if you still think it can reach 8000, you might end up doubting life.

This is the rhythm of the main force: not only washing positions but also washing faith. The tighter you hold on, the harsher they act, until you finally give in and hand over your chips. Only then can the market truly start.

From a broader perspective, I still remain bullish, especially in June, when we can expect a wave of policy-level stimulus. The Bitcoin conference didn’t drop the hammer but instead lowered expectations, which may be building momentum for the future market.

Currently, in the short term, Ethereum has preliminarily built a stage bottom during this wave of decline, and we do not rule out a decent rebound appearing soon. If it really drops back to 2100 or even lower, that would be our golden position for heavy buying.