5.30
Morning Market Perspective on the Resilience of U.S. Stocks and Investment Discipline Amidst Tariff Deadlock
Core Contradiction: Stalemate in Tariffs, U.S. Stocks Sail Against the Wind
The shadow of tariffs remains. The current U.S. tariff policy is deeply entangled in multiple legal lawsuits, with the White House exhibiting an unusually tough stance, vowing to defend its position vigorously in the Supreme Court. It has also indicated that if judicial avenues are blocked, it will not hesitate to use other administrative measures to continue pushing for taxation. This is akin to injecting a 'stimulant' into the long-term nature of tariffs, and the market's short-term hopes for a policy shift have become exceedingly slim.
The resilience of U.S. stocks stands in stark contrast. The U.S. stock market has shown remarkable momentum this month, heading towards its strongest monthly performance since November 2023. Even with occasional short-seller disturbances such as the intraday fluctuations on May 29, all three major indices ultimately closed higher: Dow +0.28%, S&P 500 +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.39%. Large tech stocks are leading the charge, and Chinese concept stocks are also performing well, highlighting the underlying upward momentum in the market.
Investor Insight: Keep an Eye on the Bigger Picture
In the complex pattern of ongoing tariffs and a rising stock market, short-term market fluctuations are normal. Investors need strategic discipline at this moment to avoid missing potential long-term upward opportunities in the market due to emotional trading (such as panic selling). Assessing the situation and strategically positioning is the best course of action, focusing on capturing core market trends rather than being swayed by short-term noise.
Technical Observation: Short-term Pressure, Long-term Positive Trend Unchanged
Short-term Adjustment Signal: The daily chart has shown three consecutive bearish candles, the slope of the Bollinger Bands is flattening, and the KDJ and MACD indicators are showing a downward divergence, accompanied by increased trading volume, indicating that short-term bearish forces hold a certain advantage.
Long-term Support Remains Strong. However, the continuous inflow of funds into spot ETFs, combined with the overall strong performance of U.S. stocks, provides solid support for the market. Therefore, the bullish logic of the larger trend remains intact, and short-term adjustments can be viewed as normal pullbacks or power accumulation within the trend.
Key support areas, such as the 104200-105200 range, can be seen as opportunities for bullish positioning, targeting the upper resistance zone of 106500-107500. If effectively broken, the space can further expand to around 108000-108800.
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