The current market shows an intensified tug-of-war between bulls and bears. After ETH broke through a key resistance level, it faced significant pullback from Bitcoin, with prices forming a fluctuation platform in the range of $2550-$2595. From a technical perspective, although the 4-hour MACD shows signs of a bottom divergence, the trading volume has not effectively increased, and the short-term moving average system is in a bonding state. The market is at a critical node for directional choice 1214.
Bitcoin recently broke through $82,000 but quickly retreated, with technical signals indicating a top divergence combination: the NUPL indicator has reached the extreme greed zone of 0.78, RSI has exceeded the overbought threshold of 90, and the MVRV Z-Score has reached the valuation alert line of 6.2 68. Historical data shows that when these indicators peak simultaneously, the market average retracement ranges from 23%-38%, suggesting holders take partial profits to avoid potential risks. $ETH
The altcoin market currently shows structural differentiation characteristics, with signs of capital inflow in leading tracks such as AI and RWA. Taking LINK as an example, its staking volume has increased by 40% month-on-month, and the collaboration with NVIDIA may become a catalyst for value reassessment 10. However, overall market liquidity remains concentrated in major public chains, with 90% of altcoins facing a liquidity crisis with an average daily trading volume of less than one million dollars 9.
For mid-term layout, it is recommended to pay attention to two core indicators: the extreme panic signal when the Fear and Greed Index drops below 20, and the continuous accumulation behavior of whale addresses such as Spoofy below $28,000. Historical backtesting shows that when these two resonate, the average market rebound can reach 58% 617. Currently, a 30% flexible position can be maintained for grid trading, with the range set at $2450-$2650. If it falls below $2400, a trend-following stop-loss will be triggered.
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