I have discovered a phenomenon, I don't know if it's just a coincidence.
The degree of dispersion in ETH contracts is much higher than that in lotteries.
If we categorize the lottery by odd and even numbers, if you buy odd numbers and the draw is odd, you win, for example, if you buy 100 you earn 100, and if you lose, you lose everything.
This is equivalent to opening a 100x leverage contract for buying and selling; if you buy and the price rises 1%, your principal doubles, and if it falls by 1%, you lose your principal.
I represent a rise of 1% with 1 and a fall of 1% with 0.
An odd lottery draw is represented by 1, and an even draw by 0.
Have you noticed that the winning rate of contracts has a degree of dispersion that is much higher than that of lotteries?
This can roll over.
If the contract rolls on both the long and short sides, setting a target of hitting 3, 4, 5 times in a row, up to 9 times, all of which are profitable, if the principal is 30u, and you open with 1u at 100x leverage, setting the expectation of hitting 7 and 8 times in a row for maximum profit can reach 10 times in 8 days!
If you buy on both odd and even sides of the lottery, also using the rolling profit method, regardless of whether you set a target of hitting 3, 4, or 5 times in a row, the result will be a 50/50 win-loss.
The conclusion is that contract prices have a certain trend, and this characteristic can be fully utilized for rolling positions.
If this holds true, it would be incredible; there is a possibility of achieving 1000 times annualized returns.
I don't know if my conclusion is correct.
I have written the program but still don't know if it holds true.
I plan to backtest 10 years of data to see what results show.
Are there any interested crypto friends who would like to discuss this and see if it holds true? Let's exchange ideas.