Institution: Aladdin Academy
Researcher: TommyBTC
Date: 2025/05/28
One, Current Price Breakthrough and Historical Patterns
$BTC Prices reached an all-time high of $111,814 in May 2025, continuing its significant cyclical characteristics. According to historical data, Bitcoin experiences a halving event every 4 years (supply of new coins is halved), followed by a bull market peak usually within 12-18 months. For example:
• After the halving in 2016, prices soared to $19,200 in 2017;
• After the halving in 2020, prices reached $69,000 in 2021;
• After the fourth halving in May 2024, the current price has surpassed $110,000, validating this pattern.
Two, Market Driving Factors
1. Supply-side tightening
• Exchange Bitcoin reserves have dropped to an 8-year low, exacerbating liquidity scarcity;
• After the approval of spot ETFs in 2024, institutions continue to accumulate, resulting in a sharp reduction in circulation.
2. Surge in Demand
• The daily inflow into the US spot ETF is about $300 million, creating sustained buying pressure;
• Under global loose monetary policy, investors view Bitcoin as an anti-inflation asset.
3. Technical Signals
• The Bitcoin logarithmic regression model indicates that after breaking 110,000, it may advance towards a target range of 160,000-$200,000;
• The current price is testing the upper boundary of the rising channel formed during the bull markets of 2017 and 2021; if it stabilizes, it will open up greater upward space.
Three, Cycle Phase and Future Forecast
1. Time window
▪ The bull market frenzy usually starts 6-12 months after the halving, with the key observation period from the end of April to the end of October 2025;
▪ Historical data shows that prices typically rise over 300%+ after breaking previous highs (as seen in 2017 and 2021).
2. Potential Risks
▪ Market sentiment may be influenced by macroeconomic fluctuations in Q3-Q4 2025 (such as interest rate policy adjustments);
▪ Changes in regulatory policies (especially restrictions on ETF fund flows) may trigger short-term corrections.
Four, Long-term Trends and Strategic Recommendations
▪ Target price: Based on supply-demand models and historical cycles, the peak of the bull market in 2025 may be in the range of 150,000-200,000;
▪ Investment strategy:
• Pay attention to exchange reserve data and ETF fund flows to grasp liquidity turning points;
• Use the logarithmic regression channel (current upper boundary $125,000) as a dynamic take-profit reference;
• Diversify into ecological tokens such as $ETH or $SOL, but be aware of the long-term zero-risk of competitive tokens.
Summary
#BTC is currently in the mid-stage of a post-halving bull market, where supply-demand imbalance resonates with technical breakthroughs. Although short-term fluctuations are inevitable, historical patterns and institutional participation both point to potential for a new round of increases.
Investors need to closely monitor macroeconomic signals and on-chain data changes in Q3 2025 to respond to possible market turning points.
