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♟️#Bitcoin Market Situation Analysis and Outlook (as of May 28, 2025)
Institution: Aladdin Academy
Researcher: TommyBTC
Date: 2025/05/28
One, Current Price Breakthrough and Historical Patterns
$BTC Prices reached an all-time high of $111,814 in May 2025, continuing its significant cyclical characteristics. According to historical data, Bitcoin experiences a halving event every 4 years (supply of new coins is halved), followed by a bull market peak usually within 12-18 months. For example:
• After the halving in 2016, prices soared to $19,200 in 2017;
• After the halving in 2020, prices reached $69,000 in 2021;
• After the fourth halving in May 2024, the current price has surpassed $110,000, validating this pattern.
Researcher: TommyBTC
Date: 2025/05/28
One, Current Price Breakthrough and Historical Patterns
$BTC Prices reached an all-time high of $111,814 in May 2025, continuing its significant cyclical characteristics. According to historical data, Bitcoin experiences a halving event every 4 years (supply of new coins is halved), followed by a bull market peak usually within 12-18 months. For example:
• After the halving in 2016, prices soared to $19,200 in 2017;
• After the halving in 2020, prices reached $69,000 in 2021;
• After the fourth halving in May 2024, the current price has surpassed $110,000, validating this pattern.
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American investors are buying again!
During the latest surge of $BTC , the Coinbase premium index has turned positive again, indicating strong buying pressure from the U.S. market.
This index measures the price difference between Coinbase and other major exchanges. When the index is positive (like now), it indicates that the trading price of Bitcoin on Coinbase is at a premium, showing strong demand from U.S. investors.
This behavior typically reflects institutional optimism and capital inflows from the U.S. market—an important signal to watch closely!
#AladdinLabs
During the latest surge of $BTC , the Coinbase premium index has turned positive again, indicating strong buying pressure from the U.S. market.
This index measures the price difference between Coinbase and other major exchanges. When the index is positive (like now), it indicates that the trading price of Bitcoin on Coinbase is at a premium, showing strong demand from U.S. investors.
This behavior typically reflects institutional optimism and capital inflows from the U.S. market—an important signal to watch closely!
#AladdinLabs
BNB/USDT
Buy
Price
692.9
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The 4 years of derivatives data clearly shows that there is less Bitcoin trading activity and lower trading volume in the price areas.
Historically, gaps created in these areas tend to be filled within a year, as trading activity eventually returns to these levels.
In other words, there is little trading activity in price areas like $99,000, $89,000, $81,000, $77,000, and $74,000 - either because price volatility is too rapid or simply due to a lack of public interest at the time.
We anticipate that some of these areas will regain attention in the coming months, providing new trading opportunities.
🔗#币安Alpha上新 #AladdinLabs
Historically, gaps created in these areas tend to be filled within a year, as trading activity eventually returns to these levels.
In other words, there is little trading activity in price areas like $99,000, $89,000, $81,000, $77,000, and $74,000 - either because price volatility is too rapid or simply due to a lack of public interest at the time.
We anticipate that some of these areas will regain attention in the coming months, providing new trading opportunities.
🔗#币安Alpha上新 #AladdinLabs
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Bitcoin needs to far exceed $86,300 to regain short-term optimism about its price.
This is because this is a key area known as the alpha price, and these levels have historically been both support and resistance.
Bitcoin may slightly break through and then fall again—a potential bull trap.
The lower support levels are $73,900 and $64,700, and if Bitcoin weakens again, these areas may be reconsidered in the future.
In other words, due to the current uncertainty and the strong resistance close to $86,000, we believe the best course of action now is to wait. Of course, if you are aggressive, you might consider shorting a bit.
Patience is the key to successful trading.
#阿拉丁加密 #AladdinLabs #aladdin #阿拉丁
This is because this is a key area known as the alpha price, and these levels have historically been both support and resistance.
Bitcoin may slightly break through and then fall again—a potential bull trap.
The lower support levels are $73,900 and $64,700, and if Bitcoin weakens again, these areas may be reconsidered in the future.
In other words, due to the current uncertainty and the strong resistance close to $86,000, we believe the best course of action now is to wait. Of course, if you are aggressive, you might consider shorting a bit.
Patience is the key to successful trading.
#阿拉丁加密 #AladdinLabs #aladdin #阿拉丁
Don’t be a linear thinker in an exponential world — you won’t make it.
$BTC 突破的目标可以投射在线性尺度（红色）或对数尺度（黑色）上。
对于这个牛市周期，10 万美元是线性目标，是抛物线阶段的开始。
#阿拉丁加密 #阿拉丁 #aladdin #AladdinLabs
$BTC 突破的目标可以投射在线性尺度（红色）或对数尺度（黑色）上。
对于这个牛市周期，10 万美元是线性目标，是抛物线阶段的开始。
#阿拉丁加密 #阿拉丁 #aladdin #AladdinLabs
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$BTC is approaching liquidity again.
According to the histogram, we see some outliers:
- The proportion of real retail long positions is still quite low (11 percentage points). If it falls (rises) back to the mean/median, it would be bearish.
- Order book: The buy-sell ratio at 5% depth is at 20 percentage points, the buy-sell ratio at 2% depth is at 12 percentage points, and the total order book at 20% depth (buy + sell) is at 23 percentage points. Both buy-sell ratios are negative, and if both are below -0.3, the bearish trend is quite obvious.
- OI has not changed much in the past 24 hours and is close to the median of the past 90 days.
- The percentage of long liquidation levels (by quantity) is quite high. Currently, 77% of all liquidity levels are long (at the 90th percentile). By size, 82% are long, at the 92nd percentile. This again indicates a bearish signal -- as the price may drop soon to catch up to that level.
The liquid cluster above may act as a magnet, but be sure to remain cautious when reaching there.
#阿拉丁加密 #Aladdin #阿拉丁 #AladdinLabs
According to the histogram, we see some outliers:
- The proportion of real retail long positions is still quite low (11 percentage points). If it falls (rises) back to the mean/median, it would be bearish.
- Order book: The buy-sell ratio at 5% depth is at 20 percentage points, the buy-sell ratio at 2% depth is at 12 percentage points, and the total order book at 20% depth (buy + sell) is at 23 percentage points. Both buy-sell ratios are negative, and if both are below -0.3, the bearish trend is quite obvious.
- OI has not changed much in the past 24 hours and is close to the median of the past 90 days.
- The percentage of long liquidation levels (by quantity) is quite high. Currently, 77% of all liquidity levels are long (at the 90th percentile). By size, 82% are long, at the 92nd percentile. This again indicates a bearish signal -- as the price may drop soon to catch up to that level.
The liquid cluster above may act as a magnet, but be sure to remain cautious when reaching there.
#阿拉丁加密 #Aladdin #阿拉丁 #AladdinLabs
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