In the cryptocurrency investment field, many people hold the ideal of 'selling precisely in a bull market and perfectly buying the dip in a bear market,' yet often overlook a harsh reality: bull and bear cycles are never signals that can be known in real-time; they are only labels recognized by the market after the trend has ended. When people use simplistic metrics like '100,000 is a bull market, 70,000 is a bear market' to make judgments, once the price jumps to 150,000 or 200,000, or drops to 50,000 or 60,000, all pre-set standards will collapse in an instant. Those seemingly sophisticated trading strategies are essentially just random successes bolstered by luck.
The only variables that truly can be controlled by investors are three—buying, selling, and the proportion of positions. Other factors, such as market trends and unexpected news, are beyond personal control. Looking back from the present, we can always clearly see the 'golden points' of '100,000 should sell' and '50,000 should buy the dip,' but when caught in the fluctuations of the market, these judgments feel like trying to see flowers in the fog, impossible to grasp.
There is a highly deceptive pattern in the cryptocurrency market—rapid increases followed by slow declines. In the process of Bitcoin soaring from $15,000 to $100,000, the curve appears to be steadily upward, but the actual explosive growth occurs over just a few days, with the majority of the time spent in a range-bound phase that tests patience. When the trend suddenly takes off, those who haven't 'secured their position' are like passengers who missed a speeding train, unable to catch up.
After entering a bear market, the pace of price declines becomes even more bizarre. When altcoins generally drop by 70%, it may seem like they have hit bottom, but in reality, they could continue to plunge another 50%. This slow decline mode is a common tactic used by major players to offload their positions—due to their large holdings, they cannot sell all at once and must create a false sense of rebound through positive news, selling off gradually as they push prices up. Each price recovery acts like a 'sweet trap' for investors, making them cling to the hope of selling when prices return to previous highs, ultimately becoming increasingly trapped in repeated pullbacks. It isn't until prices drop from 10 to 1, following a long six months of gradual declines, that investors realize they have already been deeply ensnared.
Newcomers in the cryptocurrency market often struggle to profit during their first investment cycle, primarily due to a lack of sensitivity to this slow decline trend. Investors who have experienced several rounds of harsh losses become more alert in their second cycle. When profits drop from 10 times to 7 times, they decisively exit, no longer clinging to the highs. This transformation in awareness is far more profound than any theoretical teachings— the pain of losing money gradually numbs with repetition, eventually turning into an instinctive alertness to risk.
The cryptocurrency market seems complex and ever-changing, but it actually revolves around human nature. The market caters to people's desire for quick profits, occasionally creating sudden surges; it also exploits the psychology of loss aversion, gradually wearing down resolve with slow declines. True experts can remain calm in the face of explosive price increases, quickly exiting when they notice gradual declines, while those left in the market hold onto the illusion of a rebound that has long since faded.
To establish oneself in this competitive market, one needs both a clear understanding of the rules and the determination to resist human nature. Remember, whether in a bull or bear market, a steady strategy is always more important than blindly chasing spikes or cutting losses. By paying attention to the dynamics of mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, and BNB, and replacing emotional trading with rational decision-making, one may find a way to survive amidst the tumult of the crypto sea.
