Bitcoin trend analysis on May 28, 2025
Current price and short-term trend
Price range: As of today, Bitcoin (BTC) price remains in the $109,000-$110,700 range, with small intraday fluctuations, showing a slight increase of 0.25% from yesterday.
Technical indicators:
RSI (4-hour chart): around 61, indicating a neutral to strong state, with short-term momentum not showing significant decay.
MACD: Operating above the zero line, with the histogram remaining positive, indicating that short-term upward momentum still exists.
Bollinger Bands: The opening is slightly expanding, with the price operating above the middle band. The upper resistance level is $111,500, and the lower support level is $108,200. A breakout above the upper band may accelerate upward movement.
Key driving factors
Bitcoin conference effect:
The Bitcoin 2025 conference (May 27-29) is being held in Las Vegas, with U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance and Trump's eldest son giving speeches that release positive policy signals. Trump's media company plans to raise $2.5 billion to purchase Bitcoin, further boosting market sentiment.
During the conference, on-chain data showed that whale James Wynn increased long positions to $522 million, with a liquidation price of $107,420, indicating an optimistic attitude from institutions regarding the mid-term trend.
ETF inflow:
Cumulative net inflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs has surpassed $42.4 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT recording inflows for 19 consecutive days, setting a record for 2025 and providing long-term support for the price.
On-chain activity:
The number of active addresses on the Bitcoin network remains high, and transaction confirmation times are stable at around 10 minutes, indicating a healthy network operation.
Resistance and support levels
Resistance levels: $111,500 (Bollinger Band upper band), $112,500 (historical high).
Support levels: $109,000 (recent consolidation bottom), $108,200 (Bollinger Band lower band).
Market sentiment and risk
Long-short ratio: The perpetual contract long-short holding ratio is 1.3:1, with long positions still dominant, but the funding rate is moderate, showing no signs of overheating.
Risk warning:
A bearish divergence signal has appeared on the weekly level; if it cannot break through $111,500, it may face correction pressure.
After the Bitcoin conference, if there is a lack of further positive news, short-term volatility may increase.
Operational strategy recommendations
Breakout trading:
If the price stabilizes above $111,500 and is accompanied by increased volume, a light long position can be followed, targeting $112,500, with a stop loss set below $110,800.
Correction layout:
If it falls back to the $109,000-$109,500 range, build positions in batches, with a stop loss set below $108,200, targeting $111,500.
Risk control:
Total position control within 25%, individual trade stop loss not exceeding 1.5%, pay attention to conference dynamics and on-chain whale movements.
Long-term outlook
Bitcoin, as 'digital gold,' is supported by its scarcity (halving mechanism) and institutional trends (ETF inflows) for long-term value, with a target price of $150,000-$175,000 in 2025 (optimistic scenario).
Summary: Bitcoin is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, supported by positive news from the conference in the short term, but technical correction risks should be monitored. It is recommended to adopt a strategy that combines breakouts and corrections to flexibly respond to market changes.