Las Vegas is hosting its annual crypto extravaganza, but behind this three-day celebration lies a lurking danger that chills the bones of bulls. Historically, the price trends after each conference have been cursed to fall into an adjustment vortex—post-Nashville 2023, prices retreated 18%; after the Miami summit in 2022, they plummeted 35%. Even extending the timeline to a ten-year cycle, short-term adjustments after conferences have become an unbreakable curse.


1. A script without a new story is destined for tragedy.

1. Narrative Vacuum Period: This conference still revolves around old themes like 'spot ETF approval' and 'halving cycle dividends', with no groundbreaking progress on the Lightning Network or institutional-level application explosions; even the most radical speakers only dared to repeat the cliché that 'Bitcoin is digital gold.'


Policy Void Pain: Although the Fed's interest rate cut in September is a done deal, the three-month vacuum period from June to August can be described as a liquidity hell. Even if the July 31 meeting confirms the rate cut timetable, there remains a 45-60 day transmission lag from policy signals to capital entry, a void long enough to suffocate highly leveraged markets.


3. Geopolitical Game Variability: Senator Lummis dropped a heavy signal in her keynote speech—China's 2021 crackdown on mining unexpectedly facilitated the rise of Texas as a 'crypto Silicon Valley'; even more shocking is that the Pentagon is secretly discussing including Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset—this hawkish senator candidly stated: 'When our generals start using blockchain to calculate the trajectories of nuclear warheads, it is no longer just a financial game.'

2. The technical landscape is issuing dangerous alarms.


Funding Rate Fluctuations: The perpetual contract funding rate has remained above 0.03% for 15 consecutive trading days, indicating that leveraged bulls are accumulating risk exposure. Options market volatility: The open interest of put options with a strike price of $72,000 expiring in June surged by 200%, reaching the highest level of hedging demand since the FTX collapse in 2022. Miner wallet fluctuations: In the past 48 hours, 12 large mining pool addresses transferred over 3,000 BTC to exchanges, the largest single-day outflow since April 2023.


It is particularly alarming that the day after this conference ends (in Beijing time, early July 26) will welcome a critical time window—when the last group of conference bulls leave with commemorative T-shirts, it may trigger the horn of the short sellers' full-scale attack.



3. The three strategic trends revealed by Senator Lummis are worth pondering.

Energy Hegemony Integration: The 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' being prepared by 30 states in the U.S. is essentially a new 'energy-computing-finance' triad system built using Texas's cheap electricity.

Military Digital Transformation: The Pentagon's interest in Bitcoin is not coincidental; its immutable properties align remarkably with the security needs of nuclear command systems.

Decentralized Control: Unlike traditional foreign exchange reserves, the distributed nature of Bitcoin reserves can evade SWIFT sanctions, which may be a key countermeasure of the dollar system against the digital yuan.

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