Intense Bull-Bear Battle in ADA Early Trading, Key Level Contest Determines Future Direction
In early trading, the five-minute chart for ADA shows significant volatility. After opening, a strong bullish candle rapidly hit the 0.385 resistance area but failed to break through effectively, subsequently facing a bearish counterattack that pushed the price down to the 0.373 support level. On-chain data indicates that there are buy orders worth $20 million at this position, forming a short-term defensive wall. The current price is consolidating in the 0.377-0.382 range with decreasing volume, and the hourly transaction volume has decreased by 37% compared to yesterday, leaving the market in a state of tension before a directional choice.
1. Technical Analysis Shows Multi-Cycle Divergence
The four-hour MACD has formed three bottom divergences below the zero axis, and the RSI indicator is flat around 43. The daily Bollinger Bands have tightened to the 0.368-0.396 range. Notably, at the 0.385 key level, there are 120 million ADA worth of open options contracts. A breakout at this position would trigger a Gamma squeeze effect. However, the current perpetual contract funding rate remains at a negative value of -0.03%, reflecting that bearish sentiment still exists in the market.
2. Ecological Progress Supports Value Expectations
The Cardano ecosystem DEX project Minswap announced today that it has completed the mainnet v2 upgrade, adding a smart contract liquidity pool feature. On-chain monitoring detected that a large whale address has continuously purchased 830,000 ADA around 0.375, with the locked-up amount increasing by 8.7% compared to last week. Additionally, community developers have revealed that the latest upgrade of Cardano nodes has improved TPS to practical application levels, while rumors about collaboration with the Central Bank of Ethiopia on digital currency have yet to be officially confirmed.
3. Intraday Trading Strategy
It is recommended to maintain a 50% spot position; if there is an effective breakout above 0.385, the position can be increased to 70%. If it drops below 0.368, strict stop-loss measures should be taken. Contract traders should focus on changes in volatility during the U.S. trading hours. If a 15-minute candle shows more than 3% in body size along with a surge in trading volume, it can be pursued in the direction of the trend. The current market is on the eve of a trend change, and heavy betting on direction should be avoided.
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