#BTC #ETH

【Exclusive Analysis】

To determine the timing for short positions in this market trend based on the two major super forces in the market:

1: Large B Exchange Spot Leverage Longs:

Before the current trend started, the main force of large B exchange spot leverage longs accumulated 13,000 bitcoins in February and March of this year. After entering May, this main force has gradually begun to take profits, and currently, there are about 7,000 bitcoins left to take profits in the short term;

If we extend the period, meaning the main force accumulated 80,000 bitcoins in 2022, there are currently 30,000 left to take profits;

2: CME Exchange's Golden Finger - Dealers:

Before Trump was elected president, dealers on the CME exchange opened long positions for 55,000 bitcoins at an average price of 60,000 within a week, betting on the Trump market. After Trump was elected, they accumulated an additional 15,000 bitcoins long positions, totaling 70,000 bitcoins long positions;

The two peaks created on December 17, 2024, and January 20, 2025, were the times when dealers on the CME increased their long leverage positions;

After February 2025, they began to accumulate reductions in long positions and increased short positions, reducing long positions by 30,000 bitcoins and accumulating short positions by 10,000 bitcoins;

After April 8, 2025, they stopped reducing long positions and resumed increasing long positions. By May 20, they had increased long positions by 13,000 bitcoins during this period, while their short positions almost stopped increasing but did not decrease;

From these two publicly traceable super forces in the bitcoin market, it can be seen that dealers on the CME are the main drivers of this bull market, playing an absolutely dominant role in the market;

Therefore, I believe the timing for starting to consider short positions in this trend is when CME dealers' long positions begin to reduce and they resume building short positions, alongside tracking the profit-taking situation of large B's spot leverage main force;