Discussion on hot topics:
Last night, the stock market took off, and the media group suddenly put up 2.5 billion to stock up on Bitcoin. Logically, this wave should directly push Bitcoin to a new ATH, and ETH should break through the high points from two weeks ago.
So what’s the result? Bitcoin hasn't even reached a new high, and ETH is just greeting us while reminiscing about the levels from two weeks ago. So the question arises, why hasn't the market sentiment surged alongside the capital influx?
In fact, during this period, the market has considered a pullback many times. However, the selling pressure has been completely wiped out by waves of buying, and now, after this consolidation period, choosing a direction is a problem.
Currently, I personally believe the overall trend still leans bullish. It’s unclear whether this consolidation is a peak distribution or a preparation for another surge; both sides lack strong justifications. The only certainty is that the bulls still dominate at various levels.
If I must force a metaphor, treat it as a stronger version of the dead cat bounce from 2022. However, the whales' accumulation seems even more intense; it's not just strengthened but truly deepening!
Back to Bitcoin, to be honest, the recent market movements are truly magical, almost just for the sake of volatility. The short liquidity at high levels is lined up, and despite having such a perfect clearing window last night, they still didn’t take action.
The bulls at the lower levels are also not idle, and their positions are piling up higher. Want to crash the market? You might be stopped by the bulls again. Want to push the market? The selling orders in the spot market will be a barrier that makes it hard to breathe.
Logically, once the liquidity clearing zones in the futures market become dense, the price will eventually need to clear a wave. This requires two conditions: the reverse liquidity must be weak, and the spot orders should not be too dense, but currently, neither condition is met.
There are too many bulls below, many of whom are eyeing the take-profit orders at 114700. The short clearing zone is filled with spot selling orders, forcing the price to stall here until the liquidity gap between long and short accumulates enough to trigger significant actions.
So the conclusion is to patiently wait; if the bulls get overly aggressive, the market may first eliminate the bulls before clearing the shorts. In short, if the enemy doesn't move, I won't move. Recently, I also won’t make arbitrary judgments about the overall direction; when short-term opportunities arise, I will act first and discuss later.
Blogger's perspective on the trend:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 111700
First resistance level: 110100
Support level reference:
Second support level: 107600
First support level: 106500
Today's advice:
Bitcoin is facing resistance around 110K, forming a double top before starting to pull back. Currently, it is uncertain whether 110K can truly break through; blindly expecting a breakthrough is not analysis but rather entering based on feelings, which inherently carries high risk.
In the short term, pay attention to the direction of the 60-day moving average. If the price rebounds, focus on the trading volume and candlestick patterns in the range of 109k to 110K, as further pullbacks are not ruled out.
The first resistance at 110100 is a high point that has been tested multiple times without breaking. If it successfully breaks through with increased trading volume, we can expect an additional bullish wave.
If the first resistance breaks through with adequate volume, we can expect to look at the second resistance level of 111700, but the risk around the high point range is concentrated, so it is recommended to reduce positions in batches.
107600 is a key short-term support; only if the price stays above this range can the bullish pattern continue; once it falls below, the downside risk will rapidly increase. The second support coincides with the 60-day moving average, making it an ideal low-position layout area, which can serve as a short entry point.
5.28 Blogger's segment prediction:
Long entry reference: 106500-107600 range, enter long in batches. Target: 110100-111700
Short entry reference: 110100-111700 range, enter short in batches. Target: 107600-106500
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you must keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they’re ‘always catching tops and bottoms,’ but in reality, it’s all just after-the-fact commentary. A truly noteworthy blogger will have a consistent and self-consistent trading logic that stands up to scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be dazzled by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; only through long-term observation and deep understanding can we distinguish who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
