Master discusses hot topics:
This week has been incredibly good for the crypto market, with good news coming continuously every day. However, Bitcoin still looks very weak because it hasn't fully reflected that in its price.
On Tuesday, the group of 'Chuanzi's Dad' boldly dropped 2.5 billion dollars into crypto, and by Wednesday, 401k retirement funds could buy BTC. On Thursday, tariffs were suddenly 'canceled,' which essentially means monetary easing.
The problem is this series of good news is like firing rockets, but Bitcoin didn't even make a sound. Up? Up my foot. Why? It's already peaked, bro, what rose first is meant to be smashed.
The U.S. stock market has just recovered from the tariff-induced drop since February 25, and funds have begun to speculate about its potential. As for Bitcoin? It has already broken historical highs, brushed aside various bad news, and now that it’s out of the spotlight, who can blame it?
What's even crazier is that while Bitcoin dropped last night, MicroStrategy actually went up. This signal is already quite clear; funds are pulling out and rotating, starting to focus on new targets.
Back to Bitcoin, it precisely touched 105k yesterday. No problem, but the morning bounce was sluggish, indicating that there’s still significant pressure above. On Thursday, even MicroStrategy didn’t follow this trend, which clearly shows that institutions are working together to clean out the long positions.
Next up is a retest of the 104500 to 103800 area, especially the key level at 103800. If it holds, it can bounce back to 106700, then look for opportunities to short again in the medium term.
But once it breaks 103800, just give up on the fantasy. The main force aims to push down to 101450, or even further, breaking below 100k seems inevitable. This isn’t just a slight dip; it’s a full-on assault, targeting 98200, or even 95000.
If the main force suddenly gets excited and wants to push up, it has to break through 106800 first; otherwise, it's all just fake movements. In short: don’t always just look at those KOLs boasting about a wild bull market; you need to analyze the charts too, bro!
If you're still thinking about the bottom belief and bullish news at this time, wake up! The main force is using your belief as toilet paper. Holding at 103800? If it bounces, you might escape. If it breaks? Don’t think about catching the bottom; by then, you may not catch it and lose your U.
Master observes the trend:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 107700
First resistance level: 106700
Support level reference:
Second support level: 105500
First support level: 104500
Today's suggestion:
Bitcoin failed to rebound quickly after breaking below the lower bound of the rising channel. It also faced pressure from the ascending trend line, resulting in a significant pullback. Overall, bearish sentiment has increased, but key support levels need to be reconfirmed. It’s more suitable to buy in batches during the downtrend.
The key support zone at 102.8K–104.5K is a dense trading area formed by multiple previous consolidations, which can be viewed as strong support for a short-term rebound. If it closes below the first support, it indicates that the previous low has been broken. The decline may accelerate, but a rebound can still be expected in the short term. If it quickly breaks below the second support, the price will return to historical dense trading zones, and the short-term low will further decline.
The first resistance level at 106.7k is the previous high point after this round of increase and is also a strong short-term resistance. If the price can stabilize at this position and stay above the 120-day moving average on the 4-hour chart, then more rebound space can be expected.
Only if it breaks the second resistance level of 107.7k can we expect a larger rise; otherwise, be cautious of another pullback in this range. Current volatility is low, forming a relatively narrow range. It is advisable to enter in batches on the 4-hour or smaller timeframe.
To effectively break through multiple resistances such as 108K–110K, substantial positive news and volume are needed. Otherwise, wait for a pullback to the support area for a short-term low buy setup.
5.30 Master’s wave strategy:
Long entry reference: 103800-104500 range, enter lightly. Target: 105500-106700
Short entry reference: 107700-108500 range, enter in batches. Target: 105500-104500
If you genuinely want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than just looking at a few market trends and making hasty conclusions. This market is filled with performative players; today they share screenshots of long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, appearing to 'catch tops and bottoms' every time, but in fact, it's all just post-analysis. Bloggers worth following will have trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, not just jumping in when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are what help you distinguish thinkers from dreamers!
