Yesterday, the three major US stock indexes surged, while Bitcoin fell by 0.41% during the day, showing an overall fluctuating trend. Ethereum rose by 3.89%, with a rapid increase of 200 points during the day.

1. National Economic Council Director Hassett: Tariffs on certain countries may be reduced to 10% or lower, and the reduction in tariffs will apply to countries that provide good conditions.

2. US media: Trump may implement new sanctions against Russia in the coming days.

3. Florida Governor signs bill recognizing gold and silver as legal tender.

4. Trump's media technology group announces a Bitcoin funding deal of about 2.5 billion dollars, planning to use the funds to establish a Bitcoin reserve.

Today's Focus:

At 10 PM, the US will announce the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for May;

☆ At 2 AM the next day, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the May monetary policy meeting;

☆ At 4:30 AM the next day, the US will announce the API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 23.

New York Fed President Williams stated on Wednesday that once inflation deviates from the target, global central banks need to respond 'strongly'. Due to the great uncertainty that US tariffs and trade policies bring to the economy, central banks should not pursue perfect solutions but should avoid measures where the 'cost of mistakes far outweighs the benefits'.

At the Bank of Japan's Tokyo meeting, Williams pointed out during a fireside chat with BOJ Deputy Governor Amamiya that preventing inflation expectations from deviating from the target is a high risk that the central bank must avoid. He believes that as long as inflation expectations remain stable, shocks usually do not have a long-term impact on inflation.

Trump's comprehensive tariffs and fluctuating trade policies have increased the difficulty of work for Federal Reserve officials, as they must curb inflation while avoiding excessive pressure on the US economy impacted by high tariffs.

Cryptocurrency and financial markets will eventually be ruined by Trump.

Recently, the price of Bitcoin has been fluctuating wildly, leaving many confused. Today, let's talk about the reasons behind it.

First, let's talk about Trump's delay in tariffs. Originally, Trump planned to impose a high tariff of 50% on EU goods starting June 1. However, on Sunday, he suddenly changed his mind and said he would postpone the decision until July 9, giving both sides 6 weeks to negotiate. Once this news was released, Bitcoin's price immediately reacted. On Sunday night, it rebounded from a low point, rising all the way to over 109,000 dollars, just shy of breaking through 110,000 dollars. The market saw that the risk of a trade war had temporarily decreased, and funds began to flow in, naturally pulling Bitcoin's price up.

Looking at the futures market again, it reveals a strong 'gambling mentality'. The 'financing rate' of Bitcoin has suddenly surged, what does this indicate? It indicates that many people are borrowing money to bet that Bitcoin will continue to rise, just like gamblers in a casino who are frantically increasing their bets, thinking they are about to hit the jackpot.

Moreover, the total amount of bets in the futures market, which is the open interest, has now rebounded to over 75 billion dollars. It is clear that large funds have entered the market to start operations.

There are also movements on the institutional side. The top 'coin hoarder' in the Bitcoin world, MicroStrategy's CEO, tweeted, 'I only buy Bitcoin with money I can afford to lose.' This was interpreted by everyone as him preparing to buy Bitcoin again. It should be noted that this company has already hoarded 500,000 Bitcoins, which is worth over 50 billion dollars at current prices. If they buy more, the impact on Bitcoin's price could be significant.

However, historical data has poured cold water on this frenzy. Analysts have found that Bitcoin has risen for 7 consecutive weeks, which is a very rare occurrence in the past 8 years. In the past 8 years, there have only been 3 instances of 8 consecutive weeks of increases, and never 9 consecutive weeks. Moreover, after every instance of 7-8 weeks of consecutive increases, there is a 70% chance of a decline in the following week. Although, in the long term, the price of Bitcoin is still bullish over a period of six months to a year, the risk of a short-term correction is still considerable.

Overall, Trump's delay in tariffs has relieved the market, and coupled with institutions possibly increasing their positions, the price of Bitcoin has soared to 110,000 dollars. However, it has already risen for 7 consecutive weeks and could correct at any time, just like a marathon runner needing to catch their breath. In the long run, the price of Bitcoin is still trending upwards, but if one continues to chase high prices in the short term, be careful of the risk of getting trapped.

Ethereum is also experiencing undercurrents; yesterday's consecutive rise of 200 points left many scratching their heads. In reality, it was the sudden transfer of 97,000 ETH (valued at over 370 million dollars) by an Ethereum whale that had been dormant for 8 years, causing market turmoil. This whale has been hoarding coins since Ethereum's early days, and previous large-scale operations have also affected the market. This time, the coins are being distributed to exchanges, possibly in preparation for selling.

Currently, the Ethereum ETF is about to launch, with technical upgrades and improved macro liquidity. Long-term holders continue to increase their positions, and multiple favorable factors resonate with whale movements, indicating that the market may迎来 a mid to long-term bull market, but it may also trigger extreme volatility, so one must be wary of subsequent changes.

In summary, the cryptocurrency world is like a ferocious beast; without a stable mindset, one cannot withstand it. Its unique charm also makes people yearn for it and become obsessed, trying every means to grasp it, but this cost is not something ordinary people can bear. Only by choosing excellent companions can one avoid being crushed!

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