BTC: The daily line peak is not yet over, and it continues to oscillate at high levels. Currently, it has not broken the significant support level of 106,000, so the strategy remains to look at the previous highs during pullbacks.
The US stock market is about to open this evening, and Bitcoin's performance over the weekend and Monday has been somewhat sluggish. If it can stabilize above 109,800 this evening, it can continue to look upward at 111,000; otherwise, it may continue to fluctuate around the range or pull back.
ETH: As long as it does not break 2,500, the outlook remains bullish. Currently, Ethereum has broken through the 2,600 mark with volume and has continued to rise, now stabilizing at 2,620. The short-term resistance is at 2,680-2,700. If it can continue to go up this evening, it is expected to break through the resistance; otherwise, attention should be paid to the short-term support at 2,550-2,500. There is currently significant selling pressure and signs of a trap for the bulls. The recent volatile market has been repeatedly tugging, so it is advisable to take profits quickly after making a short-term gain in the middle without lingering too long.
Mid to Long-term Development Analysis
The probability of Bitcoin's price increase in this week's market is extremely high, primarily due to the main force having high control over the market. From the data, between May 22 and 27, Bitcoin contract funding only decreased by 34%, while spot holdings sharply dropped by 90%, indicating that the main force is still present while retail investors have mostly been washed out.
The main force's dumping is aimed at accumulating shares at a low cost. Now that retail investors have exited and shares are concentrated, the timing for a rise is ripe. Ethereum's situation also confirms this, as the main force continues to accumulate spot holdings, while retail investors frequently enter and exit in the contract market.
In summary, this adjustment in Bitcoin is a washout operation by the main force, and the current market is poised for a breakout. It is recommended to hold firmly and wait for the rise.
Today's Forecast
• The US Consumer Confidence Index for May from the Conference Board, previous value 86; and the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for May, previous value -35.8.
• The Bitcoin Conference will be held in Las Vegas from May 27 to 29, 2025, with speakers including Wences Casares, Ross Ulbricht, and Michael Saylor.
Macro Highlights
• US Congress's legislation on cryptocurrency market and stablecoin regulation enters the final stage.
• Trump Media & Technology Group denies plans to raise $3 billion to purchase cryptocurrencies.
• Strategy purchased 4,020 BTC yesterday at an average price of $106,237, with an annualized return of 16.8%, now holding a total of 580,250 BTC.
• Whale James has been targeted for a long position of 7,000+ BTC.
• Japan and the US plan to hold the fourth round of tariff negotiations on the 30th, with Japan preparing 900 billion yen to counter US tariff impacts.
