BTC: Is a slight dip to 104000 coming soon??
On Saturday the 24th, I mentioned that BTC would drop for three consecutive days and then welcome a new high on the 27th. My long position cost is 106810, which I consider to be a short-term low point. However, last night, despite the surge in the US stock market, BTC only reached a maximum of 110700, and continued to decline afterwards. Therefore, I need to change my short-term view. Here are my latest thoughts:
1. From the perspective of chip structure: It couldn't hold the 110000 level twice upwards, indicating significant pressure. The surge in the US stock market couldn't push it to new highs, so it's highly probable that it will look down for support. I choose the support level of 104000, which coincides nicely with the trend line, but in reality, it might not drop that low.
2. From the perspective of estimated liquidation: Pulling up to 112000 would only explode 1.6 billion, whereas dropping to 104000 could explode 3.15 billion. From this angle, a downward drop is more favorable; since the pressure cannot be overcome, it's best to follow the easiest direction.
In summary, since it's quite difficult to go up and below expectations, we should objectively adjust our expectations. The probability of a short-term downward movement is greater, but it’s important to note that this is merely a short-term weakening trend; the larger scale is still a bullish trend. Therefore, I have only taken a small short position in altcoins and am preparing to place larger orders below to buy long.
Chat at 清水的小天地, sometimes I will share my views here.
