'Legislation determines life and death, we'll see the outcome in August!' The US Congress is getting serious this time - the cryptocurrency market structure act and stablecoin act must pass before August, or they'll all be sent back for reconsideration! The crypto community is facing the most thrilling 'regulatory life-and-death situation' ever, and exchange owners have already started pouring money into lobbying; where should retail investors stand?
Two pieces of legislation, three factions battling
Market structure legislation: Licenses must be issued to exchanges like Coinbase and Binance; future token listings will require deposits, user data will be fully transparent, and anyone caught misbehaving will be fined to bankruptcy!
Stablecoin legislation: Issuers of USDT and USDC must become 'banks'. For every 1 dollar of stablecoin issued, 1 dollar in cash must be held at the Federal Reserve. Want to secretly print more? Not a chance!
Why has it been delayed until now?
The Republican party wants to 'ease up' to support innovation, while the Democratic party calls for 'tight regulation to avoid issues'. Both sides have been arguing for two years with no result. Now, with the August deadline looming, if it doesn't pass, they'll have to wait until 2025 for a fresh start - but can the crypto community afford to wait?
The 'crazy sprint' of exchanges
Coinbase: Crazy $5 million in political donations, CEO directly stays in a Washington hotel, daily waiting outside congressional offices to submit materials.
Binance: Secretly sent lawmakers a 'cryptocurrency guidebook', with a complimentary VIP trading account experience card (including $10 in BTC).
Tether: Issued a statement overnight: 'We have always had 100% reserves!' but it was revealed they quietly bought $25 billion in US treasury bonds last year as a backup.
On-chain data reveals the truth:
In the past week, major stablecoin issuers have crazily minted $12 billion, suspected of stockpiling bullets in anticipation of regulatory changes!
Retail survival ledger: Three outcome predictions
Legislation passed (20% probability):
Exchange stocks soar, BTC hits $120,000
Small exchanges collapse en masse, MEME coins bleed out
Stablecoin annual yield drops to 1%, but security is maximized
Legislation delayed (60% probability):
The regulatory vacuum continues, altcoins run rampant
US users are forced to shift to decentralized exchanges
Stablecoin issuers accelerate overseas expansion, USDT market share soars again
Legislation in limbo (20% probability):
Bitcoin crashes 20%, but rebounds in a V-shape within a week
States are going solo, California issues 'crypto licenses', Texas creates a 'Bitcoin tax-free zone'
Retail investors are forced to learn the trifecta of cross-chain, mixers, and cold wallets
Retail survival guide: Don't bet on direction, just mine for dividends
Hoard BTC as insurance: No matter how the legislation changes, Bitcoin remains the greatest common divisor
Switching to compliant tokens: Focus on tokens listed on Coinbase (e.g., SOL, ADA)
Cash is king: Keep 30% of positions before August to buy the dip; a crash is just free money
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$BTC
