《ETH Surging to $2800: ETFs are Rocket Fuel, Regulation is Brakes, What Should Retail Investors Do?》
Crow's Summary:
1. Why the Rise?
ETF Issuance: Whether the US SEC approves ETH ETFs by the end of the month is key. If approved, giants like BlackRock may buy $1 billion aggressively, directly exploding the price.
Technical Upgrade: After the Cancun upgrade, Layer2 fees plummeted by 90%, the ecosystem exploded in popularity (e.g., Base chain's daily trading volume tripled), attracting large capital inflows.
2. Where's the Risk?
SEC Opposition: If the ETF is rejected based on "centralization," ETH may plummet by 15%-20% in a single day, trapping retail investors.
Miner Sell-Off: If the price drops below $2200, miners will sell aggressively, causing avalanche-like selling pressure on the chain.
3. Time Prediction:
Fastest 1 Week: ETF approved early + BTC surges to $120,000, ETH directly surges to $2800
Most Likely: Choppy and grinding for 2-3 weeks, waiting for ETF results and Layer2 data, breaking through in June.
Worst Case: ETF rejected + regulatory issues, falling back to $2000 and waiting for a rebound at the end of the year.
Retail Investor Mantra:
If $2650 is firmly established, add positions; if it falls below $2400, run quickly.
Keep a close eye on the SEC decision on May 23rd, this day is more important than Valentine's Day!
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