Battle for the 107,000 Bitcoin Mark: A Layman's Guide for Retail Investors
Current Situation:
The bulls and bears are in a fierce tug-of-war at 106,500 (institutional cost zone) and 108,000 (historical resistance). The bulls are supported by ETF buying (BlackRock raised 120 million in a single day), large holders accumulating coins (monthly increase of 2.1%), and expectations of interest rate cuts in September; the bears are armed with 780 million in liquidation orders, a hawkish Federal Reserve (not in a hurry to cut rates), and tariff frictions between the U.S. and Europe.
Key Actions:
Short-term: Break above 108,200 → go long (stop loss at 107,500) Break below 106,500 → go short (stop loss at 107,000) Long-term: If it holds above 105,300, dollar-cost average; if it breaks 110,000, increase position to 50% Buy freely below 100,000, hold long-term.
Risk Alerts:
Exchange suddenly adds 50,000 BTC → possible selling pressure SOPR > 1.05 → large holders want to flee Funding rate > 0.1% → market overheating.
Ultimate Conclusion:
In June, watch the Federal Reserve’s stance:
If CPI < 3.2% → surge to 120,000 If CPI > 3.5% → drop back to 100,000 to build a base.
Mnemonic: 106,500 is the iron bottom; if it breaks, run fast; if it holds, it’s a golden pit!
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