Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours

Technical Analysis:

* Key Resistance: $110,000 (Psychological Level + Profit-Taking Pressure Area), $112,000 (Fibonacci Extension Level)

* Key Support: $106,500 (Institutional Cost Line + Stop-Loss Concentration Area), $105,000 (Weekly Bollinger Band Midline)

* Indicator Signals: 4-hour MACD shows early signs of a top divergence, but the daily TD sequence has recorded its 9th consecutive bullish candle. If it fails to break through $110,000 with volume, be cautious of a false breakout.

Event-Driven:

* Bullish: Expectations of MicroStrategy increasing its holdings, continued inflow of ETF funds, implementation of Hong Kong policies

* Bearish: SUI unlocking impacting altcoin liquidity, insufficient retail investor follow-through funds, risk of correction in U.S. tech stocks

Probability Distribution:

* Consolidation ($106,500-$110,000): 40% (Waiting for confirmation of institutional accumulation signals)

* Rebound (Breakthrough $110,000): 35% (Needs ETF net inflow exceeding $500 million in a single day)

* Decline (Break below $106,500): 25% (Linked NASDAQ correction + chain reaction of mining companies' liquidations)

Operational Suggestions:

* Short-Term: Current price $109,100, lightly short with stop-loss at $110,500, target $107,000; if it breaks $110,200, reverse to long with a target of $112,000.