Forecast for BTC Trends in the Next 24 Hours

Technical Analysis:

* Key Resistance: $109,800 (4-hour EMA60 + liquidation zone), $110,500 (psychological level)

* Key Support: $105,000 (whale liquidation line + weekly Bollinger Band middle line), $106,500 (institutional cost line)

* Indicator Signals: 1-hour MACD shows signs of bottom divergence, but the daily TD sequence has formed 8 consecutive bearish candles. If it does not break through $109,800 with volume, be cautious of a false breakout.

Event Driven:

* Bullish Factors: Increasing expectations for U.S. digital asset policies, RWA narrative gaining traction, institutional ETF capital inflow

* Bearish Factors: High leverage risk in mining companies, shrinking DeFi liquidity, whale long-short confrontations causing liquidation cascades

Probability Distribution:

* Range (between $106,500 and $109,800): 40% (waiting for policy signals and clearing leverage)

* Rebound (break above $109,800): 30% (ETF daily net inflow needs to exceed $250 million)

* Decline (fall below $105,000): 30% (linked with tech stock corrections in U.S. markets + chain reaction from mining company liquidations)

Operational Suggestions:

* Short-term: Currently at $107,900, take a small long position, stop loss at $106,300, target at $109,500; if it rebounds to $109,200, switch to short, target at $107,000.