1. Technical Analysis
Market data indicates that Bitcoin reached new record levels close to 111–112 thousand dollars in May 2025, then entered a correction/consolidation and distribution phase on shorter timeframes. On the 4-hour frame, a plateau pattern is observed after a strong upward wave; a price peak at ~104,985 dollars saw an increase in volume followed by a gradual decline, reflecting slight selling pressure and a decrease in upward momentum. The key immediate support levels are around 102,500–100,000 dollars, followed by historical levels at ~95,000 and 90,000 dollars. On the upside, the main resistance at May peaks (~111–112 thousand) forms the actual test; any clear break above it could push the price into the 115–120 thousand dollar range.
Regarding technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the (70–80) range, indicating an overbought condition. Recent negative divergence between price and the RSI (price rising without a similar follow-up in the RSI) has appeared, along with a bearish crossover signal for the MACD (MACD crossing below the signal line). These indicators suggest relative weakness in upward momentum that may lead to a short-term correction. Conversely, technical analysts confirm that the golden cross on the daily frame – where the 50-period average exceeds the 200 – is a historically bullish indicator. In summary, the current technical outlook is mixed: the overall trend is bullish (supported by successive breakouts and indicators like the Golden Cross), but with warning signs in the short term from overbought conditions and negative indicators (RSI, MACD).
2. Global Economic and Political Analysis
• Impact of trade wars and geopolitical tensions: The Trump administration announced a 50% tariff on European Union imports starting June 2025. This move triggered a sharp sell-off in the markets (Bitcoin fell ~4% to ≈107,300 dollars) due to increased uncertainty and risk. Any further escalation in trade disputes (especially between the US and Europe or China) could raise market volatility and lower risk appetite. In contrast, the improvement of trade tensions between the US and China and the downgrade of US debt by Moody's led to capital flows in search of alternative safe havens like Bitcoin.
• Global monetary policy: Policymakers worldwide are moving towards an accommodative monetary policy due to the slowdown in the global economy. For example, the European Central Bank lowered the key interest rate to 2.25% in April 2025 amid expectations of declining inflation (expected below 2% in 2026 due to the impact of US tariffs on exports). This accelerated reduction usually leads to currency weakening and increased liquidity, which tends to support risk assets, including Bitcoin. Similarly, any signal that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged (or begin cuts) in light of weak economic data will bolster encouragement for the rise of parallel assets.
• Political and regulatory conditions: The US Congress revealed the 'GENIUS Act' proposal to regulate stablecoins on Monday, May 26. Passing this law could increase the regulatory framework for digital currencies and affect confidence in the Bitcoin market (either by supporting it through controls or by creating new restrictions). Additionally, Bitcoin-specific conferences and events (such as the 'Bitcoin 2025' conference in Las Vegas from May 26–28) create speculation and media waves that may support market sentiment kurzfristig, especially if technical or institutional developments are announced.
• China's outlook: Despite its ban on domestic cryptocurrency trading, there are rumors that Beijing is seeking to create a 'strategic reserve of Bitcoin' as part of its strategy to reduce reliance on the dollar. Any official or implicit signal of Bitcoin purchases by China would be a significant bullish factor, as it could boost demand and excite markets.
3. Analysis of Upcoming US Economic Indicators
Markets will closely monitor US data throughout the week, as its readings will direct policy expectations and investment mood:
• Tuesday, May 27: Consumer confidence for May (at 14:00 Baghdad time, expected 87.0 vs 86.0 previously). A stronger-than-expected reading may support risk (and increase in Bitcoin), and vice versa. Durable goods orders data (April) will also be announced, which is expected to show a sharp contraction (-8.2% vs +9.2% previously), and this weak data may cause a temporary weakness in sentiment.
• Thursday, May 29: GDP Q1 (preliminary estimate) at 12:30 (expected -0.3% vs -0.3% previously). A stronger-than-expected decline in economic growth (widening contraction) will put pressure on the dollar and enhance the tendency for monetary easing, thus supporting Bitcoin. A surprising positive reading, however, could ignite inflation concerns and encourage tightening policies, which may negatively affect Bitcoin.
• Friday, May 30: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index (April) at 12:30 (expected +0.1% monthly vs +0.0% previously). This index is the preferred measure of inflation performance by the central bank; thus, a higher-than-expected reading will encourage a more aggressive monetary approach, which may pressure Bitcoin. Conversely, a satisfactory reading (lower than expected) will alleviate some inflationary pressures and support risk assets. The Michigan consumer confidence survey will also be released (Friday evening), which may reflect consumer mood and inflation expectations.
In general, the results of this data will determine the strength of momentum in both directions. For example, continuous weakness in the US economy (GDP contraction, declining consumer confidence) may encourage accommodative monetary policies, giving a boost to Bitcoin. Conversely, surprising positive data (stronger-than-expected increases in production or inflation) may lead to a downward correction.
4. Integrated Strategy and Daily Trading Recommendations
Using a combined reading between technical and fundamental, quick trading opportunities (speculative) for each potential day can be identified as follows:
• Monday, May 27 (American holiday): Low volume movement due to the 'Memorial Day' holiday in US markets. Caution is advised; the currency may fluctuate within a narrow range without clear momentum. Small positions can be opened on rebounds from support levels around 102–103 thousand dollars, with a tight stop loss considered.
• Tuesday, May 28: Following the consumer confidence report and weak durable goods orders, attention is turned to the 102,500 dollar level as a critical support.
• Bullish scenario: If the price holds above ~102.5 as support and positive data emerges (e.g., consumer confidence exceeds expectations), then opening moderate-sized buy positions would be ideal, targeting 107–110 thousand dollars (the next resistances).
• Bearish scenario: If this support breaks (and/or the news comes out disappointing), then opening short positions may be worthwhile, targeting 100–98 thousand dollars as the next horizontal levels and closing bullish positions.
• Stop-loss levels: around 100 thousand dollars for buy trades, and around 104–105 thousand for sell trades.
• Wednesday, May 29: With the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and further statements from Fed officials, volatility may increase in the evening.
• Bullish: Maintaining support at 100–102 thousand will keep bulls dominant in the short term. Purchases on recoveries towards 104–106 thousand are possible as long as the strong support is not broken.
• Bearish: In case of a significant drop with a break of 100 thousand, profit-taking may accelerate towards 95–97 thousand.
• It should be noted that liquidity usually increases in the hours following the release of the interest rate minutes (18:00), which may generate quick opportunities either for a rebound or a sharp decline.
• Thursday, May 30: The release of GDP Q1 will be the main driver.
• Bullish: A negative GDP reading (expected contraction or greater) may enhance high-risk assets. In this case, buy positions could be opened on any slight retracement (e.g., near 102–104 thousand) targeting 110–112 thousand (where historical resistance lies).
• Bearish: A surprising positive reading may lead to partial panic, with suitable selling on a break below 100,000, targeting around 95,000 as the first target.
• Friday, May 31: Focus on inflation data (PCE).
• Bullish: If the numbers come in lower or in line with expectations (e.g., Core PCE = +0.0–0.1%), this will remove some inflationary fears. This may lead to a recovery in Bitcoin towards resistances around 110–112 thousand.
• Bearish: If the numbers exceed expectations (e.g., +0.2% monthly), some profit-taking is expected. Here, any breaks below 106,000 may lead to a drop towards 104–105 thousand.
• Attention should also be paid to Michigan surveys; any sudden change in them could stimulate evening trades.
Optimal entry and exit levels and stop-loss orders
• Long Entry: Buy at support around 102.5–100 thousand if the price holds above. Approximate targets: 107–110 thousand (short resistance) then 112–115 thousand (medium target). Stop loss below support, e.g., at 99–100 thousand.
• Short Entry: Sell on a break of 100,000 support or on a rebound from 111–112 thousand resistance. Approximate targets: 98–95 thousand first, then 90 thousand. Stop loss above the broken resistance (e.g., 103–104 thousand for sell trades).
• Rapid trading (Intraday/Scalping): It is advisable to stick to trading within stable channels (102–105 thousand) and use tight stop/profit taking due to expected news volatility. It is recommended to monitor liquidity and the trend during important news hours (12:30 and 18:00) and not to enter positions right before they are released.
Relative probabilities of movement
By combining the technical and economic data, the balance seems to favor the continuation of upward momentum with a slight advantage. The overall bullish momentum and global liquidity environment support the bullish scenario, while warning factors (such as RSI overbought conditions and political events) prevent complete certainty. Based on opinions of dispersed analysts, the probability of price rise can be estimated at around 60%, compared to 40% for the possibility of a bearish reversal. This assessment reflects a mixed outlook: moderate confidence in the potential for higher peaks, with readiness to face resistances and critical support tests. Finally, risk management should be strict and the use of stop-loss orders is crucial, as sharp fluctuations can occur due to news.
Sources: This analysis is based on recent technical and economic reports, and also considers the timing of data releases and global events outlined in the economic calendar.
