🔴 Summary of the U.S. Federal Reserve Meeting - In Market Language and Clearly:
▪️ Weak growth ahead: Federal employees have lowered their GDP forecasts for the next two years (2025 and 2026), and the forecasts are weaker than they were in March.
▪️ The labor market is still resilient: Unemployment is stable and there is no collapse in employment... but that doesn't mean the situation is safe.
▪️ A dangerous word emerged: The term "almost certain recession" was stated plainly by Federal employees 👀
▪️ The double risk: If inflation continues to rise, and in the coming period we see a slowdown in growth or employment... the committee will face very tough decisions.
▪️ Trump’s returning policies? Tariffs seem to be putting more pressure on the economy than expected... and this is an additional pressure factor on growth.
▪️ Companies and consumers are hesitant: The uncertainty and ambiguity in the market may reduce demand, and if that happens... it could help ease inflation.
🔻 Final summary:
The economy is walking a tightrope between inflation and recession, and the Fed itself has started to see a recession as a very likely possibility.
