Excerpt Monthly Report;

I see many Wyckoff Boys on Twitter shouting about the top distribution of BTC;

From around 98,000 to 110,000, of course, the distribution of Tab3 can keep being shouted, let them shout;

Anyone who talks about trends without considering the macro context doesn't need to look;

Those who discuss macro but do not understand trends also don't need to look;

The real contradiction lies in bonds;

Trump and Besant hope for lower bond yields, lower oil prices, and a weaker dollar. Currently, the dollar and oil prices have somewhat realized this, but bond yields have not met expectations;

Bond yields usually reflect the market's expectations of central banks, and the rising bond yields themselves pose a critical problem;

The problem in the bond market is the lack of liquidity to absorb the massive bond issuance, unlike scarce assets such as high-quality stocks, Bitcoin, gold, and a few quality cryptocurrencies, bonds are not scarce due to mass issuance;

Why is it critical? Because low interest rates are key; the government needs to extend huge debts, requiring low rates, but in order to enhance the attractiveness of bonds (issuing more bonds), it will push up rates, creating a contradiction;

The ultimate means to address rising bond yields must be injecting liquidity: this is the fundamental solution;

Now we can see some non-financial practitioners are unaware of methods such as SLR adjustments and similar Basel IV agreements, promoting reserve ratio adjustments to encourage the banking system to absorb bonds and gain systemic benefits;

Then we can also see Trump and Besant promoting US bonds in the dollar reserve areas (Middle East);

The US's advantage as a major power will also play an important role, allowing their savings pool to purchase;

At the same time, we will also see more direct interventions, with the Federal Reserve stepping in;

Regardless, in the face of bond market issues, central banks will ultimately print money; we currently do not see any extreme risks;

Then, the dollar, the dollar, the dollar;

It seems that everyone lacks a sufficiently deep understanding of the dollar's weakening;

The dollar is the largest and most important macro variable on Earth, so much so that nothing can compete with it;

The dollar accounts for 87% of world trade; it is the way the US adds and withdraws liquidity from the global system; it is the method for all commodity transactions; it is the leader;

About 60% of global debt is denominated in dollars. A weaker dollar will reduce the repayment cost of these dollar debts, especially for emerging markets, providing significant relief, thereby releasing their liquidity;

A weaker dollar signifies a loose global financial environment. This includes more lenient global credit conditions, improved trade terms, and attracting capital flows;

What we see is that the dollar remains in a sideways fluctuation range before January 2023, 2024, 2025, until the nuke starting in March;

Therefore, the dollar has a clear feedback loop: "Weaker dollar → Increased global liquidity → Rising asset prices → Increased wealth/confidence effect → Increased economic activity"

We witnessed a similar drop in the dollar in 2017, the same US president, the same tariffs, the same insults, the same belief that he would ruin everything;

This time, the dollar's decline is faster; due to the weaker dollar, people's financial conditions become more lenient, allowing foreigners to extend debts, and companies to extend debts;

This means everyone has more dollars to spend; more excess spending equals faster economic recovery and higher asset prices;

So the dollar is in this wonderful cycle;

Thus, this is also the core logic behind the rise of Global M2;

Next is ISM; this liquidity will transmit to the commercial market;

When the ISM index rises above 50 and forms an upward trend;

The real Meme SZN will come;

Led by PEPE;

PEPE will perform 4-5 times better than DOGE;

This will be a "dramatic" shift;

But it will come; the risk curve will occur in small-cap stocks and high-quality meme coins;

Hold good assets, exercise, and enjoy nature;

🐸 PEPE Higher