BTC: After a 3-day drop, will it rebound back to 112,000 on Tuesday for a new high?
Last night I took profit on my long position at 110,000, observed and waited all night. This morning, I thought, since it has already dropped to around 107,000, I won't short here, just buy on dips. Here are my latest views:
1. From the estimated liquidation perspective: a drop to 103,000 can trigger 2.3 billion in liquidations, while a rise to 115,000 can also trigger 2.3 billion. Currently, it’s obviously easier to go down.
2. From the chip structure perspective: 106,500 is a support level, and 103,000 is a very strong support level below that. This morning, I already opened a long position at 106,810, which is only 90 points higher than the lowest point of 106,721. It’s quite remarkable. If it goes down further, I am prepared to increase my position.
In summary, the lowest point for this wave is expected to be 103,000, which will liquidate a batch of long positions that chased the highs, followed by a strong rebound back above 112,000 to a new high, then liquidate a batch of stubborn shorts. It’s a perfect scenario but requires some time and patience.
Lastly, if you want to chat, add me at 清水的小天地. Sometimes I share my views there.
