Prediction of BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours

Technical Analysis:

* Key Resistance: $109,800 (liquidation zone + psychological level), $111,200 (4-hour EMA60)

* Key Support: $105,000 (institutional cost line), $102,500 (weekly Bollinger Band lower track)

* Indicator Signals: 4-hour RSI (28) is oversold but not diverging, TD sequence shows 7 consecutive bearish candles, caution is needed for a second bottom if no strong rebound appears.

Event-Driven:

* Bullish Factors: Anticipation of SEC staking policy implementation, Bitwise long-term holding narrative, large whales increasing positions against the trend

* Bearish Factors: Ongoing weakness in US tech stocks, chain reaction of liquidations from James Wynn, uncertainty in Trump's tariff policies

Probability Distribution:

* Consolidation ($105,000-$109,800): 45% (waiting for policy signals and leverage clearance)

* Rebound (break above $109,800): 30% (requires ETF daily net inflow exceeding $200 million)

* Decline (fall below $105,000): 25% (US stock market linked decline triggering forced selling)

Action Suggestions:

* Short-Term: Current price $107,400, take a light long position, stop loss at $105,900, target $109,500; if it rebounds to $109,200, consider shorting, target $107,000.