$ETH Evening Market Analysis · May 23
Upcoming Script Simulation
A Script: Minor rebound to 2580-2600, inducing long positions before continuing to release shorts. Wait for LH to form before adding short positions.
B Script: Directly oscillating down to 2450 without chasing shorts; wait for confirmation of failure in the rebound before entering the second segment.
C Script: Strong stop-loss reversal V, covering back to 2630+; observe unless there's a divergence in OBV and structural confirmation; do not blindly catch the bottom.
Analysis Basis
1. First, consider the script: The structural change has long been foreshadowed.
On the 15m and 3m charts, ETH formed LH → CHoCH → BOS → HL failure at high levels, which is a standard top structure build;
The actual drop started from the high point of 2696, rapidly falling to 2530, breaking multiple HLs in just two hours, clearly establishing a short structure.
Order zone and downward pressure
After breaking below the HL, it directly retested for confirmation and continued down. Each rebound struggled to break the previous high, indicating that bulls did not actively take over;
The OB zone was quickly penetrated, and the market entered an inertia rhythm of short killing—rebounding—then again short killing.
2. Next, look at the data: Behind the liquidation wave is the silence of large holders who have not withdrawn.
Contract data (as of 20:28)
Contract trading volume: decreased by 23.41%, open interest only decreased by 1.34%, indicating that market trading activity has declined, but shorts have not fully liquidated;
CVD shows a sharp increase in active selling, with spot and contract trading volumes synchronously inclined, clearly indicating pressure from major players.
Liquidation statistics
The total liquidation amount in the last 12 hours reached $118 million, with long liquidations amounting to $91.28 million;
Binance's large holder long-short ratio is still as high as 2.77, not fully cleaned out, leaving some room for maneuver.
The open interest curve is declining, with large orders still withdrawing.
