川三
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May 23, 2023 Early Market Analysis
🧭 ETH is currently stronger than BTC, but is also at the top of a critical resistance zone. On-chain data suggests increased control, making it easy to execute a 'trap for longs + pullback' scenario, so caution is needed to prevent a drop after high-level fluctuations.
The main force has not truly pushed higher;
The time spent in the high-level structure has lengthened;
On-chain bulls are too crowded;
Once a small cycle breaks down, the pullback space can be considerable.
🔍 Key Observation Points
15m 2592 Structural support; if broken = structural confirmation of downward movement
45m 2530–2510 First pullback target range
Daily 2400–2300 Overlapping previous structure and demand zone, strong support area
🧱 Key Judgments
🎯 Structure:
🔸3h
Three high points are almost at the same level, resembling a 'trap for longs three consecutive highs';
Currently, a new HH has just been formed, but the volume is weak, and it has not stabilized in the Premium area;
Although the structure is complete, the momentum for the right-side high points is clearly diminishing.
🔸45m
After CHoCH, it turned bullish, recently rising to form HH→HL→HH;
The latest rise has reached the high OB area, and horizontal movement indicates that the main force has not chosen a direction;
Further upward space is limited, making it easy to enter a false breakout + LH reversal structure.
🔸15m/3m
Multiple small LH + CHoCH patterns appear, creating a fluctuating structure;
RSI and momentum indicators are diverging, signaling clear price stagnation;
The latest rebound has failed to create a new high.
🎯 On-Chain Data Features
CVD (Active Buying) Most transactions are passive buys, not strongly pushed
Volume -18.78% 🔻 Volume shrinking, no sustained relay
Open Interest +8.2% 🟢 High-level accumulated positions, notable control by the institution
Large Trader Long/Short Ratio As high as 2.6+ 🟥 Extremely crowded long positions, very high risk, clear trap for longs
Liquidation Direction In the past 24 hours, long liquidations totaled $23.78 million, short liquidations $51.76 million. The main force has already washed out some short positions in advance, but has not truly pushed higher.
👉 Conclusion: Data in conjunction with structural rhythm indicates that the main force is 'controlling high without pushing,' primarily enticing long positions.
🧭 ETH is currently stronger than BTC, but is also at the top of a critical resistance zone. On-chain data suggests increased control, making it easy to execute a 'trap for longs + pullback' scenario, so caution is needed to prevent a drop after high-level fluctuations.
The main force has not truly pushed higher;
The time spent in the high-level structure has lengthened;
On-chain bulls are too crowded;
Once a small cycle breaks down, the pullback space can be considerable.
🔍 Key Observation Points
15m 2592 Structural support; if broken = structural confirmation of downward movement
45m 2530–2510 First pullback target range
Daily 2400–2300 Overlapping previous structure and demand zone, strong support area
🧱 Key Judgments
🎯 Structure:
🔸3h
Three high points are almost at the same level, resembling a 'trap for longs three consecutive highs';
Currently, a new HH has just been formed, but the volume is weak, and it has not stabilized in the Premium area;
Although the structure is complete, the momentum for the right-side high points is clearly diminishing.
🔸45m
After CHoCH, it turned bullish, recently rising to form HH→HL→HH;
The latest rise has reached the high OB area, and horizontal movement indicates that the main force has not chosen a direction;
Further upward space is limited, making it easy to enter a false breakout + LH reversal structure.
🔸15m/3m
Multiple small LH + CHoCH patterns appear, creating a fluctuating structure;
RSI and momentum indicators are diverging, signaling clear price stagnation;
The latest rebound has failed to create a new high.
🎯 On-Chain Data Features
CVD (Active Buying) Most transactions are passive buys, not strongly pushed
Volume -18.78% 🔻 Volume shrinking, no sustained relay
Open Interest +8.2% 🟢 High-level accumulated positions, notable control by the institution
Large Trader Long/Short Ratio As high as 2.6+ 🟥 Extremely crowded long positions, very high risk, clear trap for longs
Liquidation Direction In the past 24 hours, long liquidations totaled $23.78 million, short liquidations $51.76 million. The main force has already washed out some short positions in advance, but has not truly pushed higher.
👉 Conclusion: Data in conjunction with structural rhythm indicates that the main force is 'controlling high without pushing,' primarily enticing long positions.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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