As financial markets have just experienced several weeks of gains, a statement from Donald Trump brings a well-known geopolitical tension back to the forefront: the transatlantic trade war.
The former American president stated he wants to impose up to 50% tariffs on European products if he returns to power. An announcement that seems political at first glance, but whose timing seriously questions observers.
A timing that comes at the right moment?
Since the beginning of the year, US indices (SP500, Nasdaq) and even Bitcoin have seen notable growth. Trump's announcement comes just as valuations are tight... and where a technical correction could easily be justified by an exogenous shock.
Such a statement thus offers an ideal exit for large holders: to sell discreetly at the peak, fuel fear, then reposition lower.
Markets under pressure?
Such a protectionist measure, if it were to materialize, would heavily impact European exports, particularly in automotive, agribusiness, and heavy industry.
This could:
• weaken the euro against the dollar,
• slow down European growth,
• to provoke a reallocation of capital towards safe assets.
In this context, Bitcoin and gold could become temporary tactical alternatives again.
To watch for crypto investors
• BTC / SP500: a synchronized drop could signal the beginning of a broader corrective movement.
• Altcoins: more vulnerable to a defensive rotation. Extreme wicks remain possible.
• Cash is king: keeping mobile capital allows one to seize opportunities in case of panic.
Conclusion
Trump revives an old mechanism: to provoke instability in order to regain control.
Will the markets be able to withstand this new wave?
The response could come sooner than one thinks.