A relatively comprehensive analysis of the future of Ethereum now that BTC has continuously broken new highs. ETH/BTC is around 0.024, having just risen 38% from a five-year low (0.017 → 0.024).
First, on the macro level, Federal Reserve officials have publicly stated that if the tariff issues are eased before July, there will be room for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. Additionally, with both gold and Bitcoin reaching new highs in a high-interest-rate environment, global capital is seeking a balance between inflation-resistant and high-beta assets. Once real interest rates decline, the elasticity of risk assets will be primarily reflected in the $ETH that has not yet been fully priced.
Next, regarding funds, the cumulative net inflow of the spot ETF has reached $2.61 billion. After peaking in March, there was outflow in April, followed by a return to positive inflows in May. This basically indicates: 1. Institutional selling pressure has been initially released 2. Institutions are re-positioning in ETH. If the weekly net inflow maintains above $500 million, it can be optimistic about the future of $ETH. Additionally, the open contracts in futures are approximately $31.16 billion, with a 50% surge in the first half of May, indicating active leveraged longs.
Then, on-chain, due to the impact of decreased L2 transaction fees, EIP-1559 burning is insufficient, and inflation has turned positive again, with a total of about 120.73M ETH. The good news is that the staking rate has been continuously climbing since 2024, with the staking amount ≈ 34M ETH, accounting for about 28% of the circulating supply. Of course, the most important thing is that Ethereum still carries more than 51% of the $230 billion stablecoin market, indicating that its core position of on-chain liquidity remains unshaken.
Finally, let's predict the price and possible triggering conditions:
The probability of $3,000 – $3,400 is 60%, with ETF weekly inflows maintaining a net inflow of $500 million or less; macro predictions include one interest rate cut within the year.
The probability of $3,800 – $4,500 is 25%, with ETF monthly net inflows > $3 billion; the Federal Reserve cuts rates twice in advance.
The probability of $1,500 – $2,200 is 15%, with macro re-inflation + regulatory tightening on staking services.
