Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours

Technical Aspect:

* Key Resistance: $112,000 (Psychological Level + CME Futures Gap), $114,200 (Fibonacci Extension Level)

* Key Support: $109,800 (Daily EMA30), $107,500 (Institutional Cost Zone)

* Indicator Signals: 4-Hour RSI (68) is close to overbought, MACD histogram shows a top divergence; On-chain data monitors selling pressure from 21,000 BTC profit-taking in the $111,500-$112,000 range.

Event-Driven:

* Bullish: Expectations of Trump's policy fermenting, corporate accumulation narrative spreading, CME short covering wave

* Bearish: Democratic Party bill causing regulatory uncertainty, Basel Medical stock price plummeting affecting sentiment, capital outflow from SOL ecosystem

Probability Distribution:

* Sideways ($109,800-$112,000): 45% (waiting for policy signals)

* Upward (breaking $112,000): 35% (needs ETF single-day net inflow exceeding $300 million)

* Downward (retesting $107,500): 20% (high leverage long liquidation + U.S. stock correlation adjustment)

Operational Suggestions:

* Short-term: Lightly short at the current price of $111,500, stop loss at $112,300, target at $110,000; if it breaks $112,000 with volume, go long up to $113,500.