As Bitcoin surges past $110,000, you’d expect altcoins to follow — but they haven’t.

Despite Ethereum posting strong gains, broader altcoins are underperforming. So, what’s really going on?

I analyzed on-chain data, ETF flows, whale activity, liquidity zones, and macro factors — and the conclusion is clear:

👉 We are still in the Bitcoin phase of the cycle. Here's why 👇

🔹 1. Bitcoin vs Altcoins: Price Action Disconnect

  • BTC: +18.14% (30-day increase)

  • ETH: +48.55% (strong outperformance)

  • Altcoins: Mostly flat

The usual rotation — BTC → ETH → Altcoins — has only reached the second stage.

📊 Market positioning is still cautious:

  • Longs: $2.87B (48.7%)

  • Shorts: $3.03B (51.3%)

🔹 2. BTC Dominance: Still Too High for Altseason

Current dominance: 62.66%

Typical threshold for altseason: < 55%

🕰️ Historical context:

  • 2017 altseason → BTC dominance dropped to 41%

  • 2024 = 57%

Now = climbing higher

Conclusion: We’re not in altseason territory yet.

🔹 3. Whale Behavior: BTC is King (for Now)

🐋 Whale portfolio allocation:

BTC/Altcoin ratio: 1.23 (BTC overweighted)

Leverage:

  • BTC: 25.51x

  • Altcoins: 11.75x (54% lower)

Top 10 whales:

  • 9 prefer BTC

  • Selective accumulation in SOL, HYPE — not broad altcoin exposure

  • ETH remains underweight compared to BTC in most whale wallets.

🔹 4. Liquidity Zones: The Market Is Range-Bound

Bitcoin $BTC

  • Major support: $105K–$106K

  • Resistance: $112K–$112.25K

Ethereum $ETH

  • Support: $2,432–$2,448

  • Resistance: $2,520–$2,592

Altcoin price action is trapped between tight liquidity bands — until we see breakouts, big moves remain unlikely.

🔹 5. Macro Conditions: Neutral to Supportive

🌍 Recent data:

  • UK CPI: 3.5% (above forecast)

  • Crude Oil Inventories: +1.328M (vs -0.9M forecast)

💼 Market sentiment is cautiously bullish with high anticipation for:

  • U.S. Jobless Claims

  • U.S. Manufacturing PMI

🔹 6. Institutional Capital: Bitcoin-First Mentality

  • BTC ETF daily inflows: +$667.4M

  • iShares (IBIT): $45.9B in total AUM

  • ETH ETFs? Still struggling to gain traction

📈 The narrative and money are still flowing into Bitcoin ETFs — not altcoin products (yet).

🔹 7. Sentiment & Social Signals

📢 Twitter, Reddit, and YouTube are buzzing with:

  • Excitement over ETF inflows

  • Frustration over delayed altcoin gains

  • Hope that ETH’s strength = altseason soon

  • Reality? The sentiment is warming, but rotation hasn’t fully kicked off.

📌 Summary: Why Altseason Hasn't Happened Yet

  • BTC dominance too high

  • Institutions still stacking BTC

  • Whales favor BTC and are using more leverage

  • Liquidity zones are tight

  • Macro + retail sentiment is bullish but early

  • The ETH breakout is a signal — not yet a full catalyst.

📈 What to Watch Next

🧠 Want to know when altseason might actually start?

Here are the leading indicators:

🔻 BTC dominance drops below 55%

⚖️ ETH/BTC ratio surges

🐋 Whales increase altcoin exposure

💧 Altcoin resistance levels break cleanly

💸 Funding rates on BTC cool off (shift to neutral)

When these align, expect the real rotation.

✅ Final Take

Bitcoin’s rally is backed by:

  • Record ETF inflows

  • Smart money conviction

  • Solid macro backdrop

Altcoins aren’t lagging forever — they’re waiting their turn.

For now, BTC is leading. But when capital rotates...

🪙 The altcoin season will come fast — and hit hard.

#Bitcoin #Altcoins #CryptoMarket #Altseason #BinanceSquare