Current BTC Price: $108,176
RSI: 77.80 (overbought)
Short Bias: 50.08% of market → 📉 Underwater
Tomorrow, May 22, multiple high-impact events could send Bitcoin soaring above its ATH — or trigger a sharp correction.
Let’s break down all the potential outcomes 👇
🔹 Key Events to Watch
🕒 19:30 UTC – U.S. Jobless Claims Report
🕒 20:45 UTC – U.S. Manufacturing PMI Data
🍕 Bitcoin Pizza Day
🥩 Trump + $TRUMP Holders Dinner
Each of these could create price swings — especially if macro + crypto narratives align.
🧠 Scenario Breakdown & Price Targets
📉 1. Jobless Claims HIGH (Weak Labor Market)
• Initial drop, then rally (rate cut hopes)
🎯 Target: $106K → $110K
📊 Probability: 35%
📉 2. Jobless Claims LOW (Strong Labor Market)
• Bearish: cuts delayed, USD strengthens
🎯 Target: $105.5K–$106.5K
📊 Probability: 30%
📉 3. PMI BELOW Forecast
• Weak economy = bullish later
🎯 Target: $106K → $109K
📊 Probability: 40%
📈 4. PMI ABOVE Forecast
• Strong economy → lower cut hopes
🎯 Target: $110K → pullback to $107.5K
📊 Probability: 25%
🧨 Narrative-Driven Events
🍕 Bitcoin Pizza Day
• Social media sentiment boost
🎯 Target: $109K–$110K
📊 Probability: 60%
🥩 Trump’s Crypto Dinner
• Pro-crypto statement or surprise policy support
🎯 Target: $109.5K–$111K
📊 Probability: 40%
Note: Justin Sun confirmed to attend
🔀 Mixed Scenarios
🚀 High Volatility Combo
• Weak macro + strong narratives
🎯 Target: $110K–$112K
📊 Probability: 15%
🔁 Low Volatility
• Mixed data + muted news
🎯 Target: $107.5K–$109K
📊 Probability: 45%
❗ Bearish Scenario
• Strong data + bad crypto news
🎯 Target: $104K–$106K
📊 Probability: 20%
📊 Technical Snapshot
• Major Support: $105,500
• Key Resistance: $110,500
• Liquidation Zones:
– $105.5K (support)
– $110K+ (resistance)
• Open Interest: $76.43B
– CME leads: 23.11% = institutional watch
✅ Summary: How to Prepare
📌 Expect volatility between 19:30–21:00 UTC
🎯 Watch price action around $105.5K–$110.5K
📈 Bullish outcome likely if weak macro + strong narrative align
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💬 What’s YOUR price target for May 22?
