New narrative after all-time highs
In 2024, after Bitcoin broke through its historical high of $70,000, market sentiment continued to heat up.

The market, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift and technical breakthroughs have led more and more analysts to believe that Bitcoin may be the most profitable in this cycle.

The target is 120,000 US dollars. This prediction is not groundless, but based on the resonance of multiple factors.

1. Technical aspects: Signals of breakthrough rise

  1. The revelation of historical cycles

    • Bitcoin has shown a "post-halving explosion" pattern in history: it rose 80 times after the halving in 2016, and halved in 2020.

      The fourth halving will be completed in April 2024 (the block reward will drop to 3.125 BTC).

      The growth rate of supply has slowed down, but if demand continues to grow, there will be significant upward pressure on prices.

    • The current price has broken through the previous cycle (2021) high of $69,000, and the technical pattern shows a "cup

      The theoretical target is $120,000 (Fibonacci extension level).

  2. On-chain data support

    • Long-term holders (LTH) account for more than 75% of holdings, and market selling pressure has weakened; the BTC inventory on exchanges has dropped to

      A new low in 5 years, liquidity tightening may exacerbate volatility.

  1. Fed policy shift

    • Against the backdrop of cooling inflation in the United States, the market expects that a rate cut cycle may begin in the fourth quarter of 2024, and the flow of US dollars

      Monetary easing may push up prices of risky assets.

    • If the US dollar index (DXY) continues to weaken, Bitcoin's appeal as an "asset against fiat currency depreciation" will increase.

      Further enhancement.

  2. Global geopolitical risks are escalating

    • Under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the turmoil in the Middle East and the trend of de-dollarization, sovereign states and institutions are allocating BTC.

      Demand for holdings increased (for example, El Salvador continued to increase its holdings, MicroStrategy held more than 214,000 shares)

      BTC）。

3. Funding: The “super catalyst” of institutions and ETFs

  1. Spot ETF opens up traditional capital entry

    • Since the approval of US Bitcoin spot ETFs (such as BlackRock IBIT) in January 2024, the cumulative net inflow

      With over 15 billion US dollars, the average daily trading volume accounts for more than 30% of the total BTC trading volume, becoming the main force of new funds.

    • If Europe, Asia and other places follow suit and approve ETFs, the scale of global compliant capital inflows may increase exponentially.

      long.

  2. “BTCization” of corporate balance sheets

    • Tesla, Block and other listed companies have included Bitcoin in their asset reserves, and MicroStrategy has issued

      Bond holdings continue to increase, forming a positive feedback loop of "holding-increase-increase".

IV. Potential Paths and Risk Warnings

  1. Rising Path Deduction

    • Optimistic scenario: Break through $100,000 in early 2025, and then hit by FOMO sentiment and institutional buying

      $120,000;

    • Conservative scenario: short-term correction to $55,000 before accumulating strength, reaching $80,000 by the end of the year, and completing the process in 2025.

      Achieve the goal.

  2. Risk factors

    • Regulatory uncertainty: The U.S. SEC’s scrutiny of cryptocurrency exchanges could trigger a short-term sell-off;

    • Black swan events: technical risks such as quantum computing breakthroughs and 51% attacks (extremely low probability but need to be alerted)

      be alert);

    • Reversal of market sentiment: Risk assets may come under pressure if the Fed delays rate cuts or inflation rebounds.

Conclusion: $120,000 is not the end

The scarcity of Bitcoin (up to 21 million coins) and the global demand for digital currency make it still in the value development stage in the long run.

Although short-term fluctuations are inevitable, driven by technology, capital and the macro environment, 120,000

The US dollar may be a reasonable target in this cycle. For investors, it is necessary to pay attention to position management and long-term trends.

Avoid being disturbed by noise.

$BTC



How long will it take for your BTC to reach $120,000? Comments are welcome

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