Bitcoin Price Scenarios for May 22: Will We Break ATH or Crash?

Current BTC Price: $108,176

RSI: 77.80 (overbought)

Short Bias: 50.08% of market → 📉 Underwater

Tomorrow, May 22, multiple high-impact events could send Bitcoin soaring above its ATH — or trigger a sharp correction.

Let’s break down all the potential outcomes 👇

🔹 Key Events to Watch

🕒 19:30 UTC – U.S. Jobless Claims Report

🕒 20:45 UTC – U.S. Manufacturing PMI Data

🍕 Bitcoin Pizza Day

🥩 Trump + $TRUMP Holders Dinner

Each of these could create price swings — especially if macro + crypto narratives align.

🧠 Scenario Breakdown & Price Targets

📉 1. Jobless Claims HIGH (Weak Labor Market)

• Initial drop, then rally (rate cut hopes)

🎯 Target: $106K → $110K

📊 Probability: 35%

📉 2. Jobless Claims LOW (Strong Labor Market)

• Bearish: cuts delayed, USD strengthens

🎯 Target: $105.5K–$106.5K

📊 Probability: 30%

📉 3. PMI BELOW Forecast

• Weak economy = bullish later

🎯 Target: $106K → $109K

📊 Probability: 40%

📈 4. PMI ABOVE Forecast

• Strong economy → lower cut hopes

🎯 Target: $110K → pullback to $107.5K

📊 Probability: 25%

🧨 Narrative-Driven Events

🍕 Bitcoin Pizza Day

• Social media sentiment boost

🎯 Target: $109K–$110K

📊 Probability: 60%

🥩 Trump’s Crypto Dinner

• Pro-crypto statement or surprise policy support

🎯 Target: $109.5K–$111K

📊 Probability: 40%

Note: Justin Sun confirmed to attend

🔀 Mixed Scenarios

🚀 High Volatility Combo

• Weak macro + strong narratives

🎯 Target: $110K–$112K

📊 Probability: 15%

🔁 Low Volatility

• Mixed data + muted news

🎯 Target: $107.5K–$109K

📊 Probability: 45%

❗ Bearish Scenario

• Strong data + bad crypto news

🎯 Target: $104K–$106K

📊 Probability: 20%

📊 Technical Snapshot

• Major Support: $105,500

• Key Resistance: $110,500

• Liquidation Zones:

 – $105.5K (support)

 – $110K+ (resistance)

• Open Interest: $76.43B

 – CME leads: 23.11% = institutional watch

✅ Summary: How to Prepare

📌 Expect volatility between 19:30–21:00 UTC

🎯 Watch price action around $105.5K–$110.5K

📈 Bullish outcome likely if weak macro + strong narrative align

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💬 What’s YOUR price target for May 22?

#Bitcoin #BTC #MacroAnalysis #BinanceSquare #PizzaDay