First, Burst the Biggest Lie: Where is the boundary between bull and bear markets?
There are always people bragging about escaping at the peak of a bull market and buying at the bottom of a bear market. The truth is: both bull and bear are after-the-fact analyses! You see 100,000 as the peak now, but what if it surges to 200,000 tomorrow? You think 70,000 is the bottom today, but what if it drops to 50,000 the day after tomorrow? Before the market has run its course, no one knows where the turning point is.
Those who flaunt their trading slips are just survivors’ bias—out of 100 people guessing randomly, one will get it right, but that’s no different than throwing darts to pick stocks.
Second, the only controllable actions are two.
Buy: What price to buy? How much to buy?
Sell: What price to sell? How much to sell?
Other macroeconomics, dealer movements, technical indicators are all distractions. I’ve seen too many people obsess over candlestick patterns and end up losing so much they forget their wallet passwords.
Third, Rapid Rises and Slow Falls are the True Nature of the Crypto World.
Surge: Bitcoin from 15,000 to 100,000 dollars, the actual violent rise happens in less than 10% of the time.
Steady Decline: 90% of the time spent in oscillation and consolidation, falling for three months and rising for three days is the norm.
It’s like riding a roller coaster: if your seatbelt (position) isn’t fastened properly, a sharp turn can throw you off. By the time you realize it’s a 'bull market,' the ride has already taken you two miles away.
Fourth, the Big Reveal of the Dealer’s Knife Techniques
Downward Lingering Technique:
Your 1 million rises to 3 million, and when it drops to 2.7 million, you think it can return to break even.
When it rebounds to 2.8 million, you hesitate to sell, then it drops to 2.5 million and you start to feel conflicted.
Finally, it drops to 500,000 and you completely give up, the whole process is like boiling a frog in warm water.
Rebound Fishing Technique:
Every drop gives you a little sweet taste, making you feel like 'this time is different.' When the altcoin drops from 10 to 1, you only realize your account has shrunk by 90%—but it’s already too late.
Fifth, Deliberate Training on the Life-and-Death Line
Stop-Loss Muscle Memory:
The first time you cut losses, it hurts; the third time, you’re numb; by the fifth time, you have no expression.
I've seen too many people not sell after a 10x gain, only to cry for help when it drops to a 3x gain.
Take-Profit Conditioned Reflex:
When you’re up 7 times, be ready to run at any moment.
Don’t fantasize about eating the whole fish; leave some scraps for the bag holder.
(Bloody Case: Last year I made 8 times on a certain MEME coin and didn’t sell, ultimately losing 30% of my principal.)
Sixth, the Anti-Human Survival Principle
Fear the surge: When everyone is shouting 'charge, charge, charge,' check your stop-loss orders.
Clear-headed during declines: For every 10% shrink in your account, reduce your position by 20%.
Don’t get attached to altcoins: Holding Bitcoin is a skill; those who don’t sell altcoins are all chives.
Seventh, the Advice Bought with a Million in Tuition
Don’t believe in 'Bull-Bear Cycle Theory,' you’re always in a cycle.
Position control is 100 times more important than technical analysis.
A 50% drop in altcoins has a 99% probability of dropping another 50%.
Only those who have experienced three halving events without quitting have the right to talk about making money.
(Data speaks: Between 2020-2023, 73 out of the top 100 altcoins by market cap went to zero.)
The Final Truth:
The ones making money in the crypto world have never been the prediction masters, but the strategy execution machines. Only when you turn buying and selling into a conditioned reflex do you deserve to pick up gold coins in the meat grinder.
